Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 221141 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 741 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE NOR-EASTER STORM...THE DRY SIDE...SO THE BIGGEST BY- PRODUCT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND. SHORTWAVES ROTATING EASTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...ONE SHORTWAVE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR POPS WITH MORE WEIGHTING THIS MORNING TOWARDS THE HIRESW-ARW. ASIDE FROM RAIN THREAT...THE GREATER INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED HIGHER GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION. AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION BUILDS EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION BUILDS EAST. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 740 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TODAY...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN A WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK. FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH IFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR FURTHER EAST. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR/HIGH MVFR TOWARD BCB...AND THEN SCATTER TO VFR OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS...AND ACROSS VIRGINIA NORTH OF A KROA/KLYH LINE...HIGHWAY 460. ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE FROM THE VA/NC STATE LINE AND POINTS SOUTH. WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 3000-5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS. 20-30KT SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST TONIGHT...WHILE THE EAST WILL DRY OUT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY FROM WIND...WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS EARLY THURSDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/PM NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...KK/NF

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