Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 242035 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 335 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY... EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE WEST...MODELS AND SFC OBS STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL WITH GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AIDED BY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE GROUND IS ALSO WET...CREATING OPPORTUNITY FOR TREES TO FALL. LOW LEVEL JET ROTATES NORTHWARD JUST TO OUR WEST. SFC COLD FRONT ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ACTUAL 85H BOUNDARY LOOKS TO GET STUCK ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER...MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE LIMITED IN A DRY AIRMASS. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT EXCEPT MORE LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHWEST AND WEST SLOPES WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. LOWS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE MID 30S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. EXPECT TO START THE DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 335 PM EST MONDAY... TWO STRONG SHORT WAVES COME THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS TIME FRAME. THE FIRST CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM ON WEDNESDAY AND THE NEXT FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY THERE WILL ALSO BE GOOD Q-VECTOR FORCING AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE. WILL BE INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE TRENDED WEST WITH TRACK OF THE 850MB AND SURFACE LOWS. 12Z NAM IS COLDER WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THAN 12Z GFS. AT THIS TIME WILL BE TAKING A BLEND. LOWEST LAYERS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BUFKIT WAS SHOWING PERIODS OF ISOTHERMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON INTENSITY AND RATES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME OF COOLING IS EXPECTED AS THE TEMPERATURE DROPS TOWARD WET BULB VALUES...BUT EVEN SO...ONLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND AREAS WEST WILL HAVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. COMBINING THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL FROM THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SYSTEM WITH THE SNOWFALL FROM THE CLIPPER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY PUSH SNOWFALL TOTALS IN SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA. CHALLENGING TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE AND HOW MUCH OF A GAP THERE WILL BE FROM THE TIME THE COASTAL LOW PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE TIME THE SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER COMES THROUGH.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 130 PM EST MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...AND TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEGREE ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE COAST...AND A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SET THE REGION UP FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW...WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. LIFT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUE THESE TWO DAYS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW OR HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND A STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE A RAIN VERSUS FREEZING RAIN FORECAST...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN COVERAGE AND ALSO IN TIME DURATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL TREND MILDER EACH DAY SO THAT BY MONDAY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS CONTRASTS TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1243 AM EST MONDAY... WINDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS MAY GUSTS TO OVER 30 KTS ESPECIALLY FROM KBLF EAST TO KROA THIS AFTERNOON. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WITH PERHAPS SOME FILLING IN OF LOWER CIGS OVER THE EAST WHERE MIXING WILL BE LESS AND AROUND KBLF/KLWB GIVEN A DEVELOPING UPSLOPE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY. THUS WILL BE LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR IN SPOTS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FADES OUT EAST BUT PERSISTS ACROSS SE WEST VA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY IN BETWEEN DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUESDAY WITH MORE LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST AND A CANOPY WITH THE RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLY PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBLF/KLWB. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES. LOOKS LIKE FLIGHTS WILL BE IMPACTED GREATLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. AROUND HERE LOOKS LIKE WE WILL EXPERIENCE SUB VFR AT LEAST WED INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH WINDS MAY STAY UP THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE LOWER CIGS AT BLF/LWB INTO FRIDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 11/24... ROANOKE.....77 (1973) LYNCHBURG...79 (1973) DANVILLE....75 (1979) BLACKSUBRG..69 (1998) BLUEFIELD...72 (1973) LEWISBURG...72 (1973) && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS STAFFED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-019- 020. NC...NONE. WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042-043-507- 508.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JH/KK/WP CLIMATE...JH EQUIPMENT...JH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.