Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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457 FXUS61 KRNK 240336 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1136 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure aloft to the west will continue to bring increasing heat and humidity into Monday. A series of weak surface cold fronts approaching from the northwest should gradually bring an increasing threat for showers and storms early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1125 PM EDT Saturday... Been a quiet evening weather wise and should stay that way overnight. Remaining very muggy and temperatures at 11 pm were still running in the 70s most places. Some fog will form late over the rivers, with skies staying mostly clear. Previous valid discussion... Strong upper level ridge will continue to expand eastward tomorrow with heights increasing over the Mid Atlantic. Temperatures at 850 mb will increase a couple of degrees (+22C to +24C) over the next 24 hours resulting in another day of warmer than normal temperatures across the region. Sunday`s temperatures across the mountains will range from the lower 80s along ridge tops to near 90 in the valleys. Combining these warmer than normal temperatures with dew points in the 60s, heat indices values will run around 5F warmer than the actual temperature. Temperatures east of the Blue Ridge Sunday will run 5F-10F warmer than normal with mid to upper 90s. The piedmont counties of south- central Virginia and northwest North Carolina may flirt with triple digit heat by the end of the day. Heat indices across the piedmont may top out close to 103F for a few hours in the afternoon. With a ridge, warm temperatures, and little support aloft, only expecting isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the mountains. With less than ideal conditions for convection, any afternoon or evening showers or thunderstorms that develops will be short-lived, lasting about 30 minutes to maybe an hour. However, with modest instabilities and abundant low level moisture, we can not rule out a strong pulse thunderstorm or two during the late afternoon and early evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310PM EDT Saturday... Overall more troffing at 500MB Tuesday and Wednesday over the northeast United States as the axis of highest heights drifts south. Weak surface boundary gets close enough to the forecast area by Tuesday to result in a better probability of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the mountains. Do not expect much push south or any change in air mass. Weak winds and pooling of moisture with precipitable water values close to two inches ahead of the front will mean any of the stronger thunderstorms will have very heavy rain Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Saturday... Little change in the overall pattern will mean a persistent chance each day of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Northern stream upper trof will bring some lift into the region Friday. Temperatures will be close to normal through the period. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 715 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions expect the majority of the time with high pressure overhead. Exception would be patchy fog/stratus, especially valleys (KLWB) overnight, and some at BCB. Showers and storms Sunday afternoon will again be isolated so no mention in the terminal forecast. Extended aviation discussion... Strong high pressure aloft looks to remain in place on Monday with continued VFR outside of additional mainly mountain convection Monday afternoon/evening. Ridge will weaken through mid week as an initial cold front sinks toward the area from the northwest. This should bring about an increase in daily convective coverage Tuesday into Wednesday with periodic MVFR/IFR possible. Late night and early morning fog will likely occur at the usual valley locations, and those chances increase across the entire region if any rain occurs during the afternoon or evening at any site. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...RCS/WP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.