-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 161429
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1029 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary across the region will be the focus for
another chance of showers and storms today. The next low
pressure system approaches the region by the middle of the week.
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal until the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1020 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1. Scattered showers and storms possible today.

Back-door cold front now extended from just west of Lewisburg to
west of Hillsville as seen in the wind field and pressure rises.
Unstable air is confined to the west of the boundary. HRRR has
isolated thunderstorms developing around 19-20z/1-2PM from near
Bluefield into the northwest North Carolina mountains.

Have trimmed probability of precipitation before then. Only
minor changes to temperatures.

Previous discussion
As of 225 AM EDT Tuesday...

Current surface analysis indicates that the front is currently
situated roughly along the I-64 corridor as noted by the
northeast winds. Still a bit of uncertainty how far south the
front progresses today, but seems probable that it can make it
into northeastern portions of the CWA by daybreak.

Along the frontal boundary today, expecting some thunderstorms
to develop again, but coverage will again be limited and looks
to be more confined to west of the Blue Ridge. Less upper
support today for organized convection, but a few stronger
storms are possible across West Virginia and SW Virginia where
better instability is expected. Rain/storms will be limited east
of the Blue Ridge due to a more stable northeast flow.

Temperatures today still warm, but a few degrees cooler than
yesterday. Upper 70s to low 80s in the east, mid/low 70s for
the mountains.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Scattered showers and storms Wednesday

2: Temperatures well above normal

By Wednesday, a warm front just to the north of our area will
continue its slow progression northward. A west to east traveling
frontal system will pick up the warm front and safely north and far
enough away by Thursday that it won`t impact our weather beyond
Thursday.

The approaching system will bring a cold front nearby on Wednesday
and pass through the Mid-Atlantic early Thursday. While we remain in
the warm sector of this setup on Wednesday with better moisture
availability, scattered showers and storms will form mostly in the
mountains west of the Blue Ridge and north of the VA/NC line on
Wednesday afternoon. The rainfall from these showers is not expected
to be particularly heavy. On Thursday, in a slightly drier and more
stable post-frontal environment, precipitation is expected to dry up
by the morning hours. A transient mid-level ridge will also work to
that effect before another late week system brings more showers.

Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal, as highs sit in the
70s to 80s, and with significant cloud cover, do not cool much in
the overnight periods.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 440 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Wet again on Friday and Saturday

2: Dry and cooler conditions over the weekend

A broad area of surface low pressure with weaker intensity will
pivot out of the southern plains, following along a cold front
hanging from an area of low pressure in eastern Canada. Moderate
confidence in showers for most of the area, but high confidence for
our mountain zones as the cold front lies almost parallel to the
Blue Ridge, just west of it. The low pressure and the front will
track east, clearing the area late Saturday. Temperatures through
the weekend will cool, and with the assistance of an area of high
pressure, keep another area of low pressure from the Gulf at bay,
leading to quiet weather.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday...

Removed any mention of fog from the TAFs as cloud cover has
prevented any fog formation this morning and not confident
enough that any will form within the next hour or so. VFR
continues to be the prevailing category and will be as such
through today.

Winds remain light today as a frontal boundary stalls over the
area. Areas east of the Blue Ridge could see light northeast
winds. Some lower SCT clouds in the 3kft to 4kft also possible
for areas that see NE winds. Areas west of the Blue Ridge
remain southerly. There is a potential for storms again along
the frontal boundary, with the best chance being from
BCB/BLF/LWB. Brief periods of vsby reductions and erratic winds
are possible where thunderstorms occur.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

A low pressure system and stronger cold front approach the area
Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
with associated MVFR flight conditions, are expected ahead of
this system Wednesday through Saturday, especially each
afternoon and evening. Most of the time should be VFR. Could
also have some fog at night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AMS/BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BMG