Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 240504 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 104 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will shift southeast from the Ohio Valley into our area by Monday morning. This front will come through dry and exit to the south Monday afternoon. High pressure builds in behind the front on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by another cold front on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1113 PM EDT Sunday... Expect a quiet night weather-wise. Exception will be some breezy conditions across portions of the mountains as a 45-55 kt 8h jet works across. At the moment forecast soundings suggest that advisory level winds should stay at the highest ridges above 4500 ft, so mainly going to see gusts 30-40 mph across elevations in the 2500-4000 ft range, especially along the Blue Ridge and Alleghanys. These winds ahead of an approaching front will keep temperatures elevated, with most having lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overall skies stay clear but some increase of mid clouds appears likely into the Alleghanys and Greenbrier Valley toward dawn. A sprinkle may occur as well north of Lewisburg. Previous valid discussion... A cold front will cross the area Monday morning. Surface winds will will increase behind the front becoming gusty again by late Monday morning. Once mixing begins behind the front, temperatures will begin to rise. Downsloping on the east side of the Blue Ridge will result in warmer temperatures and lower humidities. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Surface high pressure will build over the region Monday night as a dry cold front sinks south into the Carolinas. Cold air behind the front will bring cooler than normal temperatures to the area through the period. Afternoon highs both Tuesday and Wednesday will only warm into the 60s. Widespread 30s are expected across the mountains and lower 40s across the foothills and piedmont early Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday morning. With light winds, frost will be possible across parts of the New and Greenbrier River Valleys and portions of the southern Alleghany Highlands late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, and will be reflected as such in the forecast. Frost will also be possible over parts of the New and Greenbrier River Valleys and the Mountain Empire and Grayson Highlands regions of southwest Virginia Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. However, this will not be reflected in the forecast as October 25th will have marked the end of our freeze/frost program for these regions for the forecast area. From October 26th through early spring, frosts and freezes are a normal occurrence and will not be specifically mentioned. The freeze/frost program and growing season for our eastern counties continues until November 15th unless there is a widespread killing frost (temperatures below 32F) occuring before then. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... A warm front aloft will bring high clouds over the region Thursday morning. By Thursday evening, a cold front will bring a line of showers across the mountains and possibly east of the Blue Ridge during the evening. Confidence is not high on the line surviving east of the Blue Ridge and into a more stable environment. However, flow becomes southwesterly, therefore scattered showers are possible if moisture and instabilities recover with a slower moving front. An area of weak high pressure builds in from the northwest on Friday. Models are not in agreement with next weekends weather. The GFS quickly brings the next cold front across the region Saturday. The ECM has high pressure lingering into Friday night, with a warm frontal passage Saturday followed by a cold front on Monday. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal on Thursday, then moderate toward normal on Friday. Next weekends temperatures will depend on timing of each frontal passage. For now, will carry seasonal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1250 AM EDT Monday... Overall VFR expected to prevail overnight through Monday night with periods of scattered to broken strato-cu along the KLWB-KBLF corridor tonight into early Monday morning. Bases may lower enough for brief MVFR cigs espcly across the ridges north/west of KLWB/KHSP to around KBLF early Monday as a cold front slides through and weak cool advection develops. Otherwise appears any low level moisture will mix out by mid morning Monday given mixing of very dry air in place. Main issue overnight will be increase in low level jet out of the west, while the surface winds stay lower in speed. This presents some low level wind shear issues. Will have LLWS in until mixing occurs along and just behind the front late tonight into Monday morning. Behind the front winds should gust at times to 20-25kts, then weaken again by the end of this TAF period as high pressure builds in from the northwest Monday night. Extended aviation discussion... Tuesday and Wednesday...Potential for river valley fog in the mountain valleys with local vsby restrictions between 08-14Z each morning, otherwise widespread VFR. Thursday...Low pressure is forecast to move across the upper midwest and into the Great lakes with a surface front crossing the Ohio Valley. Threat for showers and sub-VFR will be possible along this front which would impact the central Appalachians by Thursday. Attm, this does not appear that it will have a significant impact to our region. Biggest impact would be from Ohio Valley north into Great Lakes closer to the surface low. High pressure builds in from the northwest Friday, with potential MVFR ceilings at BLF/LWB before the high arrives. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday... Little or no rain has fallen across the northwest North Carolina Piedmont in the last 14 days. Conditions are becoming increasingly dry for western North Carolina, just east of the Blue Ridge. Drying conditions will continue for this region again today, and for much of the upcoming work week. Passage of a dry front early Monday may pose control problems for fire lee of the Blue Ridge, and especially for areas which have not seen rainfall. Greatest concern would be from Mount Airy, North Carolina, and areas to the southwest, including Pilot Mountain. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph are possible Monday, coupled with humidity minimums near 30 percent. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/JH/PM/WP FIRE WEATHER...PM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.