Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 191911 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 311 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY... THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO HEAD EASTWARD TO OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING...AND BE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. BY THE SAME TIME MONDAY MORNING...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID- MISSISSSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION TONIGHT. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR TEMPERATURES TAKING A HUGE TUMBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION. BY THE COLDEST AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST...AND BY LATE TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START INCREASING A THE RIDGE TOPS TO KEEP THEM FROM COOLING OFF TOO MUCH. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR PLENTY OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...AND MID 30S ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STAY THE MILDEST WITH LOWS AROUND 40. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN PART OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WV. FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. BASED UPON THE EXPECTED DISTRIBUTION OF FROST IN BOTH TAZEWELL AND SMYTH COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND ALSO TO HAVE A WELL DISTRIBUTED NATIONAL HAZARDS MAP...THESE TWO COUNTIES ARE BEING ADDED TO THE FROST ADVISORY...MATCHING THE BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES OF THE ORIGINAL ADVISORY. EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...PATCHY FROST IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING VIRGINIA COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT WILL BE PATCHY IN DISTRIBUTION...NO ADVISORIES WILL BE HOISTED FOR THIS REGION. THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND THE FACT THAT PATCHY FROST IS IN THE NDFD GRIDS MEANS THE POTENTIAL WILL BE RELAYED IN BOTH ZONE AND POINT-AND-CLICK FORECASTS. ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT... WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY... EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 120 PM EDT SUNDAY... ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN ROUGHLY KBLF-KBKW. THESE CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING...AND BY THE LATE AFTERNOON CLEAR SKIES OR ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WITH LOW END VFR BASES ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM OR NEAR CALM. AROUND 850 MB...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY THROUGH MID-DAY. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009>014-018>020-023-024. NC...NONE. WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ043-044-508. FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ507.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...DS

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