Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 210546 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 146 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY... SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST OF OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS IT PUSHES EAST INTO OUR REGION. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING. AS OF 925 PM EDT MONDAY... SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WERE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AT 9PM. RADAR ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN OHIO. THE OHIO WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS KEEP A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH AROUND 3AM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST LAV GUIDANCE. TUESDAY MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A RESURGENCE OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE WEST...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MIDDAY. A REINFORCING PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED OR LACKING ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THIS REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY... FOCUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BE CLOSED LOW WHICH PARKS ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY COOL PERIOD WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...THE CLOUDIER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE VIRGINIAS WITH DRIER AIR RESULTING IN MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS...QPF LOOKS PRETTY SCANT. THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS MAY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGIT CENTIGRADE RANGE. THERE IS A POCKET OF NEAR 0C 850MB TEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT SETTLES DOWN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...SO CAN`T RULE OUT A MIX OF -SN/RA AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATION CONCERNS ATTM DUE TO GROUND TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE FREEZING. WE MAY NEED TO ENTERTAIN FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS MARGINAL PER LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING FROM THE WIND. USED A MODEL BLEND OF MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...AND MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY... THE PRIMARY CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW ONE FINAL SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THAT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DO A COUPLE OF THINGS...ONE...SHUT DOWN THE COOL INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH...AND TWO...CLOSE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ANY MOISTURE...AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THIS SHOULD YIELD A DRY RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES...POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY... SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST. VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT BLF...LWB...AND BCB THIS MORNING. POCKETS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAIN HAS FALLEN. THE TAF SITE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG IS LWB WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR/LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE. STRONGEST UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND LOWERING CIGS TO THE LOW END OF MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR IN SOME SHOWERS AT BLF AND LWB...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS AT BCB. EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY TO SLOWLY TURNING MORE NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING WESTERN SLOPES. HIGH CONFIDENCES IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AND DEEPEN THROUGH MID WEEK AND ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA INTO WED NIGHT OR EVEN THURS MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THUS BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW- LEVEL UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN WEST WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/KK NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/KK SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...KK/SK

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