Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 160614 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 214 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BRINGING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1150 PM EDT TUESDAY... QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE GOING WIND ADVISORY AS SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTRW FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS FADING ALONG WITH ISOLATED -SHSN FAR NW AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE FREEZE WARNING REGION OUT EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 850 PM EDT TUESDAY... FRONT IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND BEST SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN SPOTS ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH ABOUT 10-11 PM BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEREFORE KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY GOING GIVEN ONE MORE EXPECTED SURGE IN SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTRW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS SLIPPED TO THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPING HELPING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVELS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE REMOVING ANY LINGERING POPS. IN THE WEST...BEST UPSLOPE ALONG WITH MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BUT MAINLY NW GREENBRIER WHERE ANOTHER INCH OR SO POSSIBLE. THUS LOWERED POPS AND SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THERE BUT HOLDING ONTO LOW CLOUDS LONGER PER LATEST MODELS AND TENDENCY FOR NW FLOW TO LINGER MOISTURE. SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A FLURRY MAY SPILL OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BETTER DRYING DEVELOPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALLOWING MOST AREAS TO CLEAR. FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE EAST WHERE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO IF NOT A BIT BELOW FREEZING MOST SPOTS PENDING JUST HOW FAST WINDS DIMINISH WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL ALMOST DAWN. OTRW RUNNING WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING TO LOW/MID 20S WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WORKS FROM KY/OHIO OVERNIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SWING TO TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING TONIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD AS 8H TEMPS DROP TO -5 TO -12C TONIGHT THEN MODIFY TO NEAR 0C BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH 40S AROUND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH WED PM DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RECORD LOWS THREATENED. DRY WEDGE WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL PERSIST UNTIL SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERED WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TOWNS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BECAUSE OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW BOTH DAYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT LLVLS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT SPRINKLES THROUGH SE WEST VA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER SATURDAY MORNING THAN WED/THURS MORNINGS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... SURFACE HIGH FILLING IN BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY COVERS NEW ENGLAND AND THE ENTIRE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THIS HIGH MAY EVENTUALLY PARK OVER NEW ENGLAND SETTING UP ANOTHER DRY WEDGE PER THE ECMWF. THUS...SUNDAY MAY BE COLDER THAN SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH ELIMINATES THE EASTERLY COMPONENT/DRY WEDGE...GIVING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND A WARMER SUNDAY. WILL GO BETWEEN THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN REMAINS DRY AND BENIGN...UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS. WENT WITH CHC POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT AT THIS TIMERANGE. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO ABATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. WINDS WILL VEER AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST... BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUNRISE...WHICH WILL HELP ERODE REMAINING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE. CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND...IT WILL ALSO BUILD SOUTHWARD...WEDGING AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST NORTHEASTERLY DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS...AND WILL DROP TO 2KT TO 4KT AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK UNDER LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. OTRW VFR FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY... RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE RISES ALONG MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO MIDWEEK. MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED ALONG THE DAN RIVER BASIN WITH LEVELS FORECASTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT SOUTH BOSTON WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE DAN AROUND DANVILLE AND PACES AS WELL AS RANDOLPH ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER WILL SEE BANKFULL CONDITIONS. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AT SOUTH BOSTON INTO LATE THURSDAY.
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&& .CLIMATE... AS OF 358 PM EDT TUESDAY... APRIL 16TH RECORD LOWS ROANOKE 24F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 26F. LYNCHBURG 27F 1943...FORECASTED LOW 27F. DANVILLE 27F 1950...FORECASTED LOW 30F. BLUEFIELD 23F 1962...FORECASTED LOW 21F. BLACKSBURG 24F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 23F. LEWISBURG 25F 2008...FORECASTED LOW 21F. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ022>024- 032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019-020. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ003>006-019- 020. WV...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...KM AVIATION...JH/NF HYDROLOGY...JH CLIMATE...JC/KM

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