Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 210609 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 209 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. A RESIDUAL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MID WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY... LATEST FORECAST UPDATE IS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH AS IT DIMINISHES MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE. ALSO MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ON TRACK. AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY... JULY WEDGE CONTINUES TO LINGER IN PLACE WITH THE WEAK PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND A SMALLER BUBBLE HIGH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS COMBO WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING HEATING TO A MINIMUM AGAIN AND EXPECTING ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN FAR WESTERN SHRA COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES ON THE PERIMETER OF THE WEDGE. HOWEVER LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A FAINT SHORTWAVE WILL EDGE EAST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WEST PENDING ANY ADDED HEATING THROUGH SUNSET. OTRW EXPECTING THE WEDGE TO ENHANCE A BIT AGAIN OVERNIGHT GIVEN WEAK SE FLOW UNDER THE LINGERING COOL POOL. UPPER SUPPORT LACKING EXCEPT FOR ANOTHER WAVE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE SW UNDER WHATS LEFT OF THE 5H TROF CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS LATE. APPEARS ENOUGH WEAK LIFT AND PERHAPS UPSLOPE TO KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS IN MAINLY SOUTHERN TIER AFTER COVERAGE FADES WITH THE WEAK WAVE THIS EVENING. FOG AND PATCHY -DZ ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WITH LOWS AGAIN MAINLY 60S...BUT A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS NUDGE UP. RATHER CUTOFF MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE SE STATES ON MONDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING BACK NORTH WITH THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH N CAROLINA MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...RISING PWATS AND THETA-E RIDGING ALONG WITH A BETTER EAST/SE TRAJECTORY UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD COMBO WITH A BIT MORE HEATING TO PRODUCE MORE SHRA ESCPLY SOUTH INTO LATE MONDAY. APPEARS BEST LOW LEVEL FOCUS SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE KEPT A SLITHER OF LIKELY POPS OTRW MAINLY CHANCE COVERAGE FOR NOW. HOWEVER MAY ONLY SEE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHRA NORTH HALF WITH MOST DEEPER CONVECTION POSSIBLE EXTREME SOUTH AND WEST WHERE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE PENDING DEGREE OF ISOLATION. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN TRICKY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER BEFORE MORE SHRA DEVELOP...SO AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET MOS SINCE APPEARS BEST WITH THE RESIDUAL WEDGING. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY... FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL EVOLVE AROUND A PERSISTENT TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LEFT BEHIND FROM THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH AS IT LIFTS OUT. WITH TIME...THIS SYSTEM ASSUMES A PSEUDO TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A MAMMOTH UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGES EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL FORCE THIS FEATURE TO RETROGRADE FROM THE GA/SC COAST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FINALLY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...PWS WILL RISE TO NEAR 2.0 INCHES. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HEAT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION AREA WIDE...WITH NUMEROUS AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NW NC AND FAR SW VA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NW NC/FAR SW VA WHERE MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT POSE ANY PROBLEMS...BUT SLOW MOVING/TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TERRAIN OF NW NC/FAR SW VA COULD BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEK...DYNAMICS/SHEAR ARE WEAK...THUS SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AS WELL. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEWPOINTS/PWS AND PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION WILL TEMPER ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS...70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MAY REACH 90 IN THE PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY... UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRI...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE IS ALWAYS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING. THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN OUR REGION OWING TO THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST SHOULD SUPPORT THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE CWA AT A MINIMUM...HOWEVER IT MAY NOT GET VERY FAR...STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE CLOSER IT STALLS TO THE FORECAST AREA THE MORE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THE LINGERING PSEUDO TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER. MOISTURE COULD RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS BY SAT...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON ANY UPSTREAM NW FLOW DISTURBANCES. AFTER A VERY WARM DAY WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY A 4 TO 7 DEGREE DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. USED A GFS/ECMWF MOS MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LOW MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS AS EASTERLY FLOW CARRIES INCREASED MOISTURE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE...WHICH IS HELPING TO WEAKEN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ONLY GRADUALLY WEAKENING...BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AFTER SUNRISE...LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BREAKING OUT. EVEN THEN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CEILINGS FLIP FLOP BETWEEN HIGH MVFR AND LOW VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WILL SUPPORT SPOTTY HIT AND MISS SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...BUT BELIEVE THE STABILIZING AFFECT OF THE WEDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH KEEP ACTIVITY WIDELY SCATTERED...SUCH THAT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TSRA INTO ANY OF THE TAFS. WILL ADD MENTION OF SHRA INTO TAFS FOR NOW. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...UPPER SYSTEM IN THE BASE OF THE FADING SE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH EARLY FOG IN SPOTS GIVING WAY TO BRIEF VFR...THEN PERIODIC MVFR IN CLOUDS/SHRA EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF MVFR/IFR PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS. IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION...EXPECT POSSIBLY KDAN. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 940 PM EDT SUNDAY... KFCX RADAR IS DOWN. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL INVESTIGATE ON MONDAY. NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RETURN TO SERVICE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...CF/JH SHORT TERM...PM/RAB LONG TERM...PM/RAB AVIATION...DS/NF EQUIPMENT...CF

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