Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 281948 CCA AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 341 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST... BUT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THE WARM AND HUMID AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN AND GIVE THE AREA A MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A DIFFUSE FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION AND ADD A LITTLE SUPPORT TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO GENERATE THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE PIEDMONT AS. WITH LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY GENERATE A PULSE STORM OR TWO THAT WARRANT ATTENTION. MAINLY EXPECTING RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS BUT QUITE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ACTIVITY WILL QUIET DOWN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET SO EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION AND PUSH THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH THE PIEDMONT/SOUTHSIDE LOOKING MOSTLY DRY. NO AIRMASS CHANGE SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND A BIT HUMID WITH MINS TONIGHT AROUND 60 WEST OF THE RIDGE TO LOW/MID 60S EAST...AND HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY UPPERS 70S/LOWER 80S WEST TO MIDDLE 80S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH ANY WEAK FORCING LIFTING WELL TO NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ONLY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP A FEW SHWRS GOING INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. OTHERWISE REDUCING POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE BY MIDNIGHT OR SOON THEREAFTER. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DRIER AIR WRAPS CLOCKWISE AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THIS CAN BE SEEN READILY IN THE PRECIP WATER FORECASTS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUS INSTABILITY LOOKS MUCH MORE LIMITED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OTHER THAN THE HIGHEST RIDGES PERHAPS GETTING ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWER OR ISOLD THUNDER...MAINLY IN WEST VIRGINIA...THINK MOST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE DRY AND ALSO FAIRLY WARM FOR SATURDAY. LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FROM BLUE RIDGE AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH LOW CHC CONFINED TO WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND ALONG STATE BORDER WITH VIRGINIA...INCLUDING ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH PIEDMONT AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT FOR A STRAY SHOWERS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AGAIN...BUT FOR NOW LEAVING POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD THERE FROM SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH BUT THEN ALSO FROM THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG A SLOWLY APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SQUEEZE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO AREA. THUS LOOKING LIKE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD...AND THUS THINK CHANCE POPS MAY STILL BE ADEQUATE TO DESCRIBE EXPECTED COVERAGE IN MOST AREAS. LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL LEAVING SOME LOW LIKELY VALUES IN MOUNTAINS...BUT HOLDING OFF ON ANY MENTION IN PIEDMONT UNTIL AFTERNOON AND KEEPING LOW CHANCE THERE. NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GFS A BIT MORE SW...THUS SOME QSTN HOW FAR EAST OF BLUE RIDGE STORMS MAY DRIFT BY LATE AFT/EVE...BUT WITH THE CONVERGENCE FROM WEAK BOUNDARY THIS COULD BE AN OVERNIGHT WHERE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO KEPT POPS UP IN THE CHC CATEGORY SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY... MODELS HAVE CLUSTERED AROUND A BASIC SOLUTION OF BUILDING A DECENT SUMMER WEDGE BUILDS ON OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM BACK MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR TWO BUT AMOUNT OF HEATING WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. PLUS THE WEDGE WILL BE SHALLOW. THE BOUNDARY AT 850 NEVER MAKES IT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND WITHOUT A BIG CHANGE IN AIRMASS...MOIST DEW POINTS WILL LIMIT HOW COOL IT GETS AT NIGHT AND SO EACH DAY WILL BE STARTING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEDGE TRICKY TO DISTINGUISH BY DAY 7. WILL HAVE DRY WX ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CU/CB DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY PREVALENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...AND RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MATCHING IN A SIMILAR PATTERN. WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT CONVECTION WE CONTINUE TO LACK ANYTHING RESEMBLING SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS SO STORMS WILL LACK ORGANIZATION SAVE FOR WHAT THEY CAN MUSTER THROUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PIN ACTIVITY TO A SINGLE LOCATION/TIME SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND AMEND AS CONDITIONS DICTATE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL AS IT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MID/UPPER CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERS OVER THE AREA TO HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO ALONG WITH GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND INTRODUCE SOME FOG/STRATUS MOST LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY LOCATIONS THAT GET PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL LIKELY FOG IN BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TO LOW TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION SPECIFIC TO TAF SITES THAT FAR OUT. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SLOW MOVING DIURNALLY DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS...NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH MOIST/STABLE CONDITIONS AT NIGHT...PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...BUT LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND QUICKLY BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...MBS/PM

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