Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 282326 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 726 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN MORE DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY... JUST A FEW WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR BLAND AND MERCER COUNTY. NOT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU...SO A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS ALL THAT WILL OCCUR IF THAT...AND REALLY NOT SEEING ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN 15 POPS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...NO TREMENDOUS CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST EXCEPT UPDATING TEMPS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WILL BLEND TO THE LATE EVENING OFFICIAL FORECAST. EXPECT A SCT/BKN CU FIELD TO FLATTEN OUT AND MOST SHOULD STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THOUGH MORE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SE WV INTO THE ALLEGHANYS TIL EARLY SAT. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING LATE AND VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SIMILAR FLAVOR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RIDGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH MIDDLE 50S WEST OF THE RIDGE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S EAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY... RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AIDING LIFT ALONG WITH HEATING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST FOCUS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER INSTABILITY...DIFFLUENCE AND THETA-E RIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER THIS AGAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED VIA WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SO EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED NATURE COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. THUS HOLDING OFF ON GOING MUCH MORE THAN MID CHANCE POPS...MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A MOIST/WEAKLY VEERED PROFILE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT LESS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...APPEARS SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED SO ONLY KEEPING A 20ISH POP OUT EAST FOR NOW. WARMING 85H TEMPS SUPPORT RATHER WARM TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN TEMPS MAY GET CLOSE TO 90 PIEDMONT PENDING DEGREE OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE BECOMING MORE MUGGY GIVEN INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE FAR WEST ESPECIALLY IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY/MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1240 PM EDT FRIDAY... OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT LEAST EARLY ON AS UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WAVE ALOFT AND IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WELL NORTH OF ERIKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND OF DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/EXPANSE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN BETTER PWATS/MOISTURE AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. HOWEVER THINK LOW/MEDIUM CHANCE POPS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER OROGRAPHICS...AND MORE ISOLATED ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY GIVEN MOISTURE OVER TOP A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE. THUS FOLLOWED CLOSER TO TRENDS FROM WPC WITH A GRADUAL BOOST IN POPS EACH DAY BUT LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THURSDAY. THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN BY DAY7 WITH MODELS LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND FROM THE NE WITH A POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS MOISTURE GIVEN A BETTER EASTERLY TRAJECTORY TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE GOING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS PER POTENTIAL TROPICAL TYPE PWATS OVER THE AREA DURING HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPS GIVEN SUCH A HUMID/WARM AIRMASS...SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PENDING CLOUDS/SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY... REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH HINDRANCE TO AVIATION THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE THE SCT/BKN CU EARLY THIS EVENING FLATTEN OUT TO STRATOCU OVERNIGHT AND MAY KEEP BLF/LWB/BCB SCT V BKN BUT AT 4-6KFT. LOOKING AT THE MINIMAL THREAT OF GROUND FOG AT BCB/LWB SO KEPT THE TEMPO GROUPS IN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND EXPECT SCT/V/BKN VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT MUCH COVERAGE TO HAVE IN THE TAFS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY... EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES...WHICH WILL RAISE OUR CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. GENERALLY EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR TO BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST ESPECIALLY AT KLWB/KBCB.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...MBS/WP SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...MBS/WP

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