Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 280551 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 151 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COOL FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT REACHING SOUTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING. WITH THIS FRONT REMAINING OVER THE REGION...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ON FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING DRIER WEATHER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 845 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A COUPLE CORRIDORS THIS EVENING...ONE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ALONG THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT...AND THE OTHER NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WITHIN A GRADIENT OF HIGHER THETA-E. THIS SOUTHERN AREA ALSO AIDED BY SOME LINGERING WEAK CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND EMBEDDED WEAK VORTICITY LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SAGS SOUTH BY MORNING. FOR NOW APPEARS WILL SEE CURRENT MAINLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING COVERAGE HANG ON UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH GET WELL WORKED OVER. HOWEVER BAND OF DEEPER CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST IN KY/TN COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN CWA LATE BUT THIS REMAINS IFFY PER VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH AN AXIS OF MORE LIKELY NATURE POPS SOUTH AND TAPER ELSEWHERE TO LOWER CHANCE BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MOUNTAINS LATE. LOW TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK AS ONLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FALLS UNTIL THE FRONT OOZES IN FROM THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTRW MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY.. AS EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWED MLCAPES TO REACH ABOVE 500 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DCAPES FROM 500-700 J/KG MAY YIELD A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE VA SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNDOWN...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE MEDIUM RANGE AND SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS BRING ANOTHER AROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH...THERE MAY BE WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST THAT LOCATIONS TO THE EAST...LIKE LYH...WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING WEDGE AND EAST/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS 60F OR HIGHER. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN OCCUR ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED TOMORROW AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SMALL THREAT IN THE HWO. TRIED TO CONVEY A BROADER RANGE IN TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...GOING COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE EAST (LYH) AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 236 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...FINALLY KICKING THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS STRONG WAVE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO OHIO-PENNSYLVANIA. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS SECOND LOW WILL KEEP HEAVY CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THEN OUT TO SEA FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ENERGY AND MOISTURE IS PUSHED OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE EXITS EAST...TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHSIDE. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 5F-8F WARMER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS SATURDAY WITH RAIN FALLING INTO A WEDGE OF COOL AIR OVER THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE MID WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT OVER THIS WEDGE OF COOL AIR. WARM MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO KICK THIS WEDGE AND RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH MAY HANG OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE BRINGING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR DRY SPELL BRIEF. THE WEDGE OF COOL AIR AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S. IF THE WEDGE EXITS ON TIME...MONDAY TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH NEAR 70F WEST AND MID 70S EAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES MAY TREND COOLER BASED ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY... FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR FOG. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WHEN KDAN AND KBCB WILL LOWER TO IFR CEILINGS. THE FRONT WILL STALL THEN RETREAT EAST LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT IFR CEILINGS IN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW AT KLYH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OHIO TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE WAS MOVING EAST. MODELS BRING THIS PRECIPITATION INTO KLWB AND KBLF AREA AROUND 12Z/8AM. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THE INTENSITY OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE TIME THEY REACH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. LOCATIONS ON THE WARM...WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH NEAR TERM...JH/PH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/JH

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