000
FXUS61 KRNK 140825
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL
START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TRACKS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROF AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COOL ENOUGH FOR
LARGE LAPSE RATES BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MOISTURE CONFINED TO SHALLOW LAYER BETWEEN 900
AND 800 MB. MODELS SHOWED BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND EAST OF HOT
SPRINGS AND LYNCHBURG THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

THE STRATOCUMULUS AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. 850 MB START OUT
AROUND 35 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS BY
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED
OVER WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE...AND WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECT VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR COOLING. SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE WEST MAY DROP JUST BELOW 50
DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SUNDAY WILL PRESENT THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE HEADING OUR WAY IS RATHER
SHEARED AND WEAK...ALSO INSTABILITY ISN`T THAT GREAT. THINKING THE
MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE SO WENT
A LITTLE LESS THAN GUIDANCE POPS AND DELAYED MOST OF THE RAIN
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT`S RUNS...THERE IS A
DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US MONDAY WITH A STRONGER UPPER LOW
OVER SE CANADA...ALSO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
IS FLATTER. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR
DIRECTION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A CLOUDY YET WARM AND HUMID
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF A FRONT. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT MON-TUE WILL HAVE THE BETTER
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF US BY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STAY HUNG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT
THAT SOME OF OUR SRN CWA COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WED OR
THU...ALTHOUGH FOR NOW LEFT IT MAINLY DRY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
BECOME MORE NORMAL POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING
SOME BY WED NIGHT-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AT ROA/BCB/LWB/BLF AND THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH OF A SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT THAT FOG FORMATION IS NOT LIKELY. HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE
KLWB TAF.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN VFR
WEATHER. SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THEN WINDS DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE FOG AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING... KLWB/KBCB...OTHERWISE VFR. THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD/ALONG AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...KM/WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH