Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 211105
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
705 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift from the lower Great Lakes region
toward New England today, and build southward across the Mid-
Atlantic to wedge against the eastern face of the Appalachians
tonight into early Friday. Low pressure developing along the
Gulf coast will radiate moisture northward Friday evening into
Saturday, resulting in widespread rainfall. Another cold front
will pass across the region Saturday evening, with high pressure
returning for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...

Latest forecast update for modest adjustment to temperatures.
Have issued a Fire Danger Statement for the mountains and
foothills of Virginia given dry fuels and any ongoing fires.

As of 140 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Lower wind speeds today, however still very dry air remains
in place.

2. Temperatures near seasonal normals for today and tonight.

Starting Thursday off with clear skies across the lower Mid-
Atlantic in the wake of the passage of a cold front on Wednesday
evening. Wind speeds continue to diminish, though gusts of 15
mph to 25 mph are still common across the mountains this
morning. Winds across the Piedmont have dropped to 5 mph or
less. Still enough wind to keep the atmosphere mixed, helping to
prevent a sharp drop in temperatures, which linger in the 40s
and 50s this morning. Passage of the cold front has left a
reinforcing shot of dry air across our area, which will set the
stage for another day of very low humidity heading into the
daylight hours.

For today, high pressure will shift east across the lower Great
Lakes region, with the high`s center close enough to keep wind
speeds much lower than those of the past few days. Gusts of 10
to 15 mph can be expected across the mountains, while areas east
of the Blue Ridge can expect gusts to remain 10 mph or less.
This is relevant because very dry air will remain across the
lower Mid-Atlantic today, with relative humidity falling into
the teens this afternoon. The dry, windy conditions on Wednesday
supported the start of several wildfires across the region, and
while lower wind speeds will help limit the spread of any
fires, the exceptionally low humidity today will keep fuels such
as leaf litter, brush and dead grasses dry enough to burn for
one more day. Afternoon temperatures will be near-normal for the
second half of March, ranging from the upper 40s across
southeast West Virginia, to the low 60s across the Piedmont of
North Carolina.

High pressure will begin to build southward across the Mid-
Atlantic late this evening, gradually wedging against the
eastern face of the Appalachians through tonight. This will
bring a northeasterly wind shift, carrying cool marine air into
our area from off the DelMarVA. Clouds will increase as the
night progresses, but clear skies to start the night will allow
temperatures to fall rapidly early, reaching into the upper 20s
to low 30s for overnight lows.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM EDT Thursday...

Key message:

 - One to two inches of rain expected Friday night into Saturday.

A low pressure system will move across the Deep South on
Friday, then over the southern Appalachians Friday night into
Saturday. Moisture from this systems will overrun an insitu
wedge, bringing much needed rainfall to the area. Rainfall
amounts will range from up to one inch across the mountains to
as much as two inches along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge
to the piedmont. Due to the dry antecedent conditions and low
water levels, no flooding is expected.

The wedge will erode Saturday as the surface low tracks along
the NC/VA coast, dragging a cold front across the region. It
appears this system is a tad slower to exit the area. We should
see rain leaving the piedmont by Saturday evening. Pressure
rises behind the front will bring breezy conditions Saturday
afternoon and night. Dry weather returns on Sunday.

Rain falling into cool dry air should result in uniform
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s Friday. Temperatures
will rebound back toward normal values Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

  - Weather pattern expected to be dry until Tuesday.

Dry high pressure will grace the region through the middle of
next week. A cold front will approach the area Tuesday and could
come across the area Wednesday. Near normal temperatures
expected through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Widespread VFR conditions through the period, lower wind
speeds as well.

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the 21/12Z TAF
period under mostly clear skies and generally unrestricted
visibility.

Wind speeds continue to diminish this morning, with occasional
gusts in the 15kt to locally 20kt range across the mountains,
while winds east of the Blue Ridge have fallen to 5kt or less.
North- northwesterly winds today will shift northeasterly
tonight as high pressure shifts from the lower Great Lakes
toward New England, and then builds southward to wedge against
the eastern face of the Appalachians. Sustained speeds will
remain under 10kt today and tonight, with mountain gusts locally
to 20kt.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Increasing clouds Friday morning and afternoon, then chances
for rain and MVFR conditions or lower ceilings increase
beginning Friday evening and continue through Saturday as low
pressure moves up the east coast. Sunday and Monday look VFR
with slightly gusty NE to E winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 650 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Much lower wind speeds for today, though very dry air remains
across the region.

Wind speeds will be much lower today, blowing from the
north-northwest today and shifting more northeasterly tonight.
Gusts to 20 mph can be expected across the mountains, while
areas east of the Blue Ridge can expect gusts to remain 10 mph
or less.

Exceptionally dry air remains in place however, with afternoon
RH values forecast to fall into the 12 to 20 percent range for
nearly all of the service area.

A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the mountains and
foothills of Virginia given dry fuels and ongoing fires.
Coordination with West Virginia will take place later this
morning. Winds will remain light across North Carolina, so will
address fire weather concerns in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

A widespread wetting rain will arrive Friday night and Saturday.

Sunday and Monday look like mild days with relatively low wind
speeds.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/WP
FIRE WEATHER...NF/WP


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