Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 172347 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 747 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front heads to the coast this evening, ushering in drier and colder air across us through Tuesday. After that, temperatures moderate closer to normal for Mid-March. Very gusty west-northwest winds continue at times through Wednesday. The next chance for rainfall may occur Friday when low pressure develops over the Gulf Coast region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1. Colder air arrives tonight. Temperatures fall to at or below freezing across the mountains. 2. Gusty winds Monday with cooler temperatures. Quite a bit of high clouds interspersed with scattered to broken high level stratocu/altocu along/behind cold front. Very dry air will swing in from the northwest tonight and winds will stay up all night, but some diminishing occurs toward dawn. Forecast on track. Cannot rule out a sprinkle over the NC piedmont into southside VA this evening as the front exits. Previous discussion from early this afternoon... A cold front had moved through our region today, and was accompanied by plenty of altocumulus and gusty west winds to 35 mph or so at times. Winds decrease some tonight, but we will still see a few strong gusts as moderate cold air advection continues. Skies clear out for a few hours tonight with the loss of daytime heating and the waning influence of the surface boundary. Tomorrow, there are indications we will see additional lee cirrus such as we saw overnight/this morning, consisting of a stripe of high clouds along and just downwind of the Blue Ridge mountains. Overnight lows will be at or a few degrees below freezing for the mountains, while the Piedmont will see mainly upper 30s and low 40s. Any denser cloud cover could result in warmer temperatures, however. As Monday wears on, clouds will gradually increase in coverage as another shot of cold air arrives after noon. The pressure gradient will also increase as this occurs and high pressure nears from the Midwest. A stray snow or rain shower is possible for the Greenbrier Valley tomorrow. Expecting a coolish day temperatures, ranging from the 30s and 40s in the mountains to the low to mid 50s for the Piedmont. Winds will be stronger than today, but won`t really get going until the afternoon and evening, when gusts to 45 mph will be possible for our higher terrain. Lower elevations will likely see gusts to 35 mph at least. Just a reminder: If you placed sensitive plants outside given the recent unseasonably warm temperatures, bring these back inside to protect them from freezing temperatures tonight. Confidence in the near term is high.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1. Breezy, windy, or very windy conditions are expected for most of this time period. 2. Small chances of light precipitation for parts of Southeast West Virginia 3. Dry elsewhere. During Monday night, the much advertised upper trough will cross our region. In the wake of the passage of its axis, we are still expecting increasing 850mb winds. Speed values peak between roughly 35 and 45 kts during the early evening and slacken only slightly through the night. The peak in the wind speeds is also matched by a peak in the 6-hr pressure rises during the early evening of around +4 to +6 mb. Pressure rises near zero mb not long after 06Z. On Tuesday, low level winds back slightly during the morning hours and continue to decrease in speed. As we head into Tuesday night, a shortwave trough is expected to cross the Great Lakes region, with the tail of its trough axis skirting northern parts of the area. Winds at 850mb again increase into the 35 to 45 kt range. This first shortwave trough is followed about twelve hours later by another early Wednesday night. The result of the above is a period with small chances of light upslope precipitation over the Southeast West Virginia mountains with dry weather else where. Additionally, much of this time period will be on the breezy, windy, or very windy side. We may need to consider wind headlines for Monday night along and near the crest of the Blue Ridge southwest of Roanoke. Strong northwest winds will have the effect of helping yield some compressional warming to slightly counter the effects of cold air advection across eastern parts of the region. Additionally, this pattern has traditionally resulted in dew point values, and subsequently relative humidities, lower than most model guidance suggests. Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1250 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1. Dry Thursday. 2. Rain potential Friday into Friday night. 3. Drier and windier Saturday and Sunday. On Thursday the region will still be with in an area of dry, but gusty, northwest flow. As we head into Friday, here is where the biggest question mark in the forecast continues to be positioned. We will be watching both a southern stream trough/low progress into the Deep South. Concurrently, a shortwave trough is expected to race across the Great Lake region. How or if these to features interact, and the overall path of both their centers, will play a big factor into how much associated precipitation we receive and the timing and potentially p-type of this precipitation. Model guidance is still too variable to offer a moderate or high confidence forecast, but there are some similar trends. The center of the southern stream trough/low is expected to remain south and east of the region. However, where the deformation zone on the northwest side of this system tracks does come into question. What does remain to be a reasonable call is for precipitation in some capacity to impact our area on Friday into Friday night. Drier and windier conditions look to follow Saturday and Sunday as well. Confidence in the above scenario is moderate on the synoptic aspects but low on the mesoscale. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 735 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1. Gusty WNW winds will diminish overnight before strengthening even more tomorrow afternoon and evening. Expect VFR cigs/vsbys through the period, with mainly mid and high clouds, though some broken stratocu at times this evening occurs across the mountains. West-northwest winds will gust to 15-25kt this evening, then subside late tonight only to pick up again after 15z Monday. Some gusts could approach 30-35kts by the end of this taf period around BCB/ROA. High confidence in VFR, moderate on winds. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday, except for possible intermittent MVFR conditions in mountain snow or rain showers Wednesday morning at BLF/LWB. Gusty northwest winds continue Monday night through Wednesday. Speeds will be strongest in the mountains, potentially reaching 40 kts locally at times. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is high.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 740 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1. Gusty west-northwest winds and drier air expected through Thursday. 2. Combo of dry fuels/low RH and some gusty winds will lead to wildfire spread uptick in portions of the NC foothills Monday. Per coordination with NCFS and looking at dry fuels/RH 25-30 percent Monday and some gusts over 20 mph, a fire danger statement will be in effect for Monday afternoon for Alleghany, Surry and Wilkes Counties. RH should be higher in Ashe/Watauga with colder temps, while winds further east in the piedmont will be weaker. WNW winds will relax some overnight but not totally go away. Another strong shot of cold and dry air will result in even stronger gusts Monday afternoon through Wednesday, with some weakening during the nighttime. Despite cooler temperatures arriving with the front, strong mixing associated with the gusty winds will maintain low afternoon RH values through Thursday. Light snow or rain showers are possible for the Greenbrier Valley Monday afternoon and evening. The next chance for widespread wetting rain may come Friday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF/SH/WP NEAR TERM...SH/WP SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...SH/WP FIRE WEATHER...NF/SH/WP

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