Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 310725 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 325 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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The remnants of Bonnie will stay along the Carolina coast through Thursday morning. A cold front arriving by Thursday should start to nudge Bonnie out to sea. The front slows down and crosses the area Friday into early Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday... Instability gradient across the foothills this morning per mesoanalysis allowing for continuation of isolated showers, though the trend has been for weaker and less coverage. The 00z GFS showed this fairly well in the SBCAPE forecast. Fog has begun to form in the west, but still patchy enough in nature to delay any advisory, but a Special Wx Statement is likely. A dense fog advisory may be needed if fog becomes more widespread, but given some lingering mid and high cloud cover this may prevent it. Today, models are giving almost a repeat of Monday while the remnants of Bonnie linger along the SC/NC coast. Appears best instability gradient with low level moisture convergence will be along the Blue Ridge and either side by midday, though some models are showing even further west development of convection, with best lift across portions of Southeast WV and the NC mountains. Still spotty nature to convection will keep pops no higher than 40. Leaned toward the GFS solution as mentioned which actually keeps lower pops across far SW VA into SE WV. Highs today will be dependent on amount of sunshine, thinking more sun across the Mountain Empire of Southwest Virginia, north across SE WV. Temps will climb into the lower to mid 80s for most similar to Monday. Tonight, still looks any showers or storms in the west are going to weaken and end but along and east of the Blue Ridge, isolated convection may linger through late night. Fog again should form after midnight, especially in the mountain valleys. The remnants of Bonnie by late tonight will still be along the southeast coast of NC, near ILM. Lows similar to this morning with upper 50s to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 210 am Tuesday... Remnants of Bonnie will continue to hug the North Carolina coast into Thursday night, then a front pushes her out to sea on Friday. Even though Bonnie remains along the Carolina coast, she continues to have some influence on our weather. Her influence has not been much in the way of rain, but providing an area of subsidence keeping convection limited. As in the past couple of days, Wednesday will see another round of isolated to scattered convection across central and northern Virginia. These storms will track southwest across the foothills and piedmont counties during the afternoon and evening. Across the mountains, orographic lift and differential heating will help generate slow moving afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. These mountain showers will fade with loss of heating in the evening. On Thursday, a combination of tropical moisture and prefrontal dynamics will bring a better chance for showers and thunderstorms to the mountains, while remnants of Bonnie places subsidence over the piedmont. Therefore, we will carry high PoPs west and chance in the east. This cold front will likely stall over the Ohio Valley Thursday night, then push across the region through the day Friday. Even though PWATS will remain high, bulk of the heavier rain will stay north of the area, toward DC into New England. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will warm into the lower to mid 80s. Friday`s temperatures will be somewhat cooler with rain for much of the day follow by the frontal passage.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1245 PM EDT Monday... Gradual lowering of heights will continue into next weekend as the upper zonal flow starts to break down and eventually gives way to a more pronounced trough across the region into early next week. Initial boundary should be to the south Saturday with a brief lull in showers possible before the true secondary front arrives Sunday. This boundary ahead of a rather potent chilly upper cold pool for early June that will pivot east across the region by Day7 and likely knock temps back to below normal levels for early next week. Ahead of the front looks like added bands of shra/tsra Sunday followed by more post frontal upslope nature western showers Monday. Otherwise warm and humid temps with highs at or above normal to prevail into Saturday despite some drying early in the weekend. This before seeing somewhat cooler and even drier air especially mountains by Monday as deeper cool advection arrives with highs mostly in the 70s west to around 80 east.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday... Fog will be good bet across LWB/BCB with clearing, but not sure how low it will go elsewhere. Dealing with more clouds east of Roanoke and Bluefield seems to have a larger dewpoint spread. Still could see some tempo periods of IFR fog at all sites, with LWB/BCB falling to LIFR after 09z. Confidence on having even VCTS in the tafs is low. Axis seems to setup across the Blue Ridge or just east Tuesday afternoon. At the moment took out VCTS or VCSH from the forecast except BCB. This can be amended later today once we see where convection forms. Otherwise look fog/low clouds to start to lift out to VFR conditions after 12-14z. Mainly VFR with scattered to broken cu field with some AC/CS aloft, with less cloud cover as you head toward BLF. Any convection should still hang on into the evening, but again lack of coverage is such that not needed in the terminals at this time. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Similar setup again Tuesday night with more fog around after any evening convection ends. Appears convection may be more isolated Wednesday as the area slides in between the next upstream cold front and the remnants of Bonnie near the coast. Thus more potential to see more widespread VFR Wednesday with exceptions over the east and with any pop up storms across the mountains. Finally an stronger upper trough will kick what is left of Bonnie out to sea Thursday-Friday. Expect more widespread showers Thursday afternoon into Friday ahead of a cold front, making for periods of sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities. Saturday may be VFR behind this front and before moisture and lowering conditions return by Saturday night. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

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