Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 270550 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 150 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Two systems will be impacting our area today. The main one will be low pressure moving from Georgia to the Carolina coastline through Thursday morning. This will bring better rain chances east of the Blue Ridge today into tonight. A front moving in from the west will slowly push the coastal system east Thursday. High pressure builds from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Gulf Coast states Thursday afternoon into Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: 1) Better rain chances east of the Blue Ridge today as low pressure works across the southeast U.S. The models are becoming consistent enough to paint a wetter picture across our piedmont of VA/NC today with less coverage west. Low pressure over southeast Georgia will slowly track north/northeast into the Carolinas through tonight. Deeper moisture convergence and lift over a warm front ahead of the low will bring rainfall across the piedmont this morning into the afternoon. While rain is possible in the mountains, kept pops in the chance to low chance range, and overall mainly dry in WV/far SW VA. The 5h pattern shows a closed low over the upper MS Valley and south to north flow which will keep the system slow moving. Today will be cloudy though some breaks this afternoon are likely in the mountains. Temperatures will likely be milder in the our WV/SW VA mountains than in the piedmont, with 50s east to lower 60s southwest. Confidence is lower on low temperatures tonight as models have some colder air tracking in by dawn Thursday with mid to upper 30s in the mountains to upper 40s in southside VA/NC piedmont. If clouds linger and low pressure is slower, lows could be higher. As the low moves into eastern NC late tonight and support aloft tracks across central NC, some westward drift in the rain is possible so keeping slight chance pops as far west as WV/VA border.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1200 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for gusty winds during Thursday and Friday. 2) Drier weather is expected for Thursday night and Friday. It will take until Thursday for the moisture to exit the Piedmont. Drier air should arrive west of the Blue Ridge on Thursday, and winds will increase from the northwest. Eventually, the cold front should depart offshore to allow the Piedmont to become dry by Thursday evening. Northwest winds will continue to gust through Thursday night and Friday, and some gusts could approach advisory criteria along the higher elevations. The wet soil combined with these wind gusts may cause a few downed trees and power lines. Winds should eventually fade by Friday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1200 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for warmer weather this weekend. 2) Chances of showers will increase into early next week. High pressure will reside across the Southeast, while a broad upper level ridge builds across the southern Plains. A baroclinic zone will develop across the northern Plains. While warmer air should boost temperatures above normal this weekend, a gradually increasing chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm exists to the northwest as this baroclinic zone creeps closer to central West Virginia. Cloud cover and rain chances will keep climbing by Monday as the baroclinic zone becomes a warm front in response to a developing low pressure system in the central Plains. The cold front from this system should reach the Appalachian Mountains by Tuesday to produce the highest odds for rainfall in this forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 135 AM EDT Wednesday... Poor flying conditions will be prevalent for most of this period as low pressure works from Georgia into the Carolinas, east of the mountains Rainfall seems a good bet from ROA east to LYH/DAN with some light rains further west this morning, but looking less as we head through the day. Ceilings/vsbys will improve to VFR at BLF/LWB this afternoon, but could drop again to MVFR after 0z/Thu. Winds will generally be light from the east/northeast, except turning west/northwest this afternoon/evening in WV. Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Sub-VFR remains into Thursday morning then cigs/vsbys should improve to VFR by Thu afternoon. Gusty northwest winds arrive Thu night into Friday but mainly VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs possible at BLF. A front may drop down from the north Saturday-Sunday with scattered showers, but overall appears mainly VFR.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...DS/WP

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