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000
FXUS63 KSGF 212322
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
622 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for areas of frost development again tonight into
  Monday morning, especially for wind protected areas east of
  I-49.

- 20-60% rain chances Tuesday with highest and more widespread
  chances along the cold front in the eastern Ozarks, decreasing
  to the west.

- 30-80% chances of rain beginning early Thursday morning and
  persisting at times into the weekend. There will be the
  potential for some strong to severe storms on Friday and
  Friday night but confidence is still low.

- Slow warming trend back to near normal early in the week
  becoming above normal into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

An upper level trough is moving south through the region this
afternoon. As the trough moves through, an area of surface high
pressure will continue to move east into the area and be over
the region this evening. This will allow clear skies and light
winds to occur this evening into early Monday morning especially
across the eastern Ozarks. Highs will warm into the upper 50s
to the lower 60s this afternoon. A drier air mass remains over
the region which will allow humidity values to continue to drop
into the 20 to 30 percent range today. Northerly winds around 10
to 15 mph will occur the rest of this afternoon with gusts up
to 20 to 25 mph at times. Elevated fire weather conditions will
continue to occur this afternoon into early evening. Winds will
weaken this evening and be light into the overnight hours.

Temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 30s tonight into
Monday morning. Winds will remain light across much of the area
into Monday morning, but as the area of surface high pressure
starts to move south, southerly winds will start to return
across extreme southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri late
tonight/early Monday morning. The drier conditions and southerly
winds returning could limit frost potential some especially
across the far west. There will still be the potential for some
areas of frost development Monday morning especially across the
eastern Ozarks as lows drop into the lower to middle 30s and
have issued a Frost Advisory from 2 to 8AM Monday morning to
cover this potential for locations east of I-49. Patchy frost
will be possible along and west of I-49, if the winds don`t
return as quickly or smaller dewpoint depressions, but at this
time the better potential is to the east of I-49.

The area of surface high pressure will be south of the area on
Monday. The pressure gradient will tighten behind the high and
southerly wind gusts up to around 30 mph will occur at times
mainly west of Highway 65. The southerly winds will start to
usher in a warmer air mass into the area as highs warm into the
upper 60s to around the 70 degree mark Monday afternoon. A drier
air mass will remain in place across the area as afternoon
humidity values drop into the 25 to 35 percent range Monday
afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible
again on Monday as the dry conditions and gusty winds combine.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

An upper level trough will move east across the northern Plains
Monday night and will move into the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday. As the upper level trough moves east, a cold front
will push southeast through the region on Tuesday. The area of
surface high pressure currently moving into the area will be
south of the area into Tuesday limiting Gulf moisture return to
the area. Some weak elevated instability will still likely
develop over the area allowing for some showers and a few
thunderstorms to develop on the front. The better coverage will
be across central Missouri on to the northeast of the area
closer to the upper level trough. Further to the south and
especially the west coverage will be more limited and not all
locations may be affected. No severe weather potential is
expected to occur with this activity as instability will be
weak. The ensemble model members then show the front stalling
across Arkansas on Wednesday. If the front stalls close to the
area, some scattered showers and a few storms will be possible,
but the better potential for this is south of the area. Most
locations should remain dry on Wednesday.

An upper level trough will move over the West Coast by
Wednesday night then will move east into the Plains on Thursday.
The ensemble model members then differ on the exact track and
timing of the system. Some close the upper level low off as it
tracks north across the plains as others keep the trough open
and track it more northeast. As the trough moves into the
Plains, surface low pressure will develop ahead of the strong
and the stalled front across Arkansas will lift north as a warm
front and move through the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible along the warm
front Wednesday night into Thursday. The exact timing for this
activity will be dependent on the exact timing and track of the
system.

As the trough moves to the east, the area of surface high
pressure will move off to the east and Gulf moisture will be
able to advect north into the region ahead of the system. A
cold front will move east across the central Plains Thursday
night into Friday. How far east the front makes it will be
dependent on the exact track of the upper level trough. As the
trough lifts more north the front may stall near or just
west/north of the area. Scattered shower and storms will still
be possible, any strong to severe potential will be dependent on
enough instability developing. Better moisture will advect into
the area but with the upper level trough/low further to the
northwest, height falls will be less over the area and may
result in more of a cap and less instability. A further south
track of the upper level trough/low could result in more
instability. A further south track could result in the front
likely stalling over or near the area with scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances across the area into next weekend. There
are still questions on the potential for strong to severe storms
which will be dependent on the exact track and timing of the
system and if enough instability can develop across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period. High
pressure will traverse the area tonight and keep skies clear
while bringing a light and variable wind shift between the
02-08Z timeframe. Winds will settle in a SW`ly direction by
15-18Z with winds in the 10-15 kt range, periodically gusting
near 20 kts between 18-00Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-
     067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Price