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000
FXUS63 KSGF 210536
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1236 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost along and northeast of Springfield Sunday
  morning. Widespread frost potential Monday morning. Especially
  for wind protected areas.

- 20-50% rain chances Tuesday with higher and more widespread
  chances Thursday through Friday night. There will be the
  potential for some strong to severe storms on Friday.

- Slow warming trend back to near normal early in the week
  becoming above normal into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

An upper level trough is currently over the northern Plains this
afternoon. The trough will move south and through the area on
Sunday. Mid level clouds will increase across the area ahead of
the trough this evening, with clouds clearing from north to
south tonight into Sunday morning. A dry air mass will be in
place in the low levels of the atmosphere, therefore no
precipitation will occur with the trough passaged this evening.

Highs will warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s this
afternoon and again on Sunday. A dry air mass will remain in
place across the area allowing afternoon humidity values to drop
to 25 to 30 percent both this afternoon and again Sunday
evening, resulting in the potential for elevated fire weather
conditions. Lows tonight into Sunday morning will generally
cool into the middle 30s to the lower 40s, but some locations
across central Missouri could drop into the lower 30s. Some
areas of frost will be possible this morning mainly north of
Highway 60 and east of Highway 65 were the colder temperatures
will occur across portions of central Missouri. An area of
surface high pressure will move over the region on Sunday into
Monday morning. Lows Sunday night into Monday morning will cool
into the lower to middle 30s. More widespread frost potential
will occur Monday morning. Not looking at a hard freeze to occur
but good setup for frost develop for portions of the area
Sunday morning and much of the area Monday morning. Will issue a
Frost Advisory generally for locations along and north of
Highway 60 and along and east of Highway 65 for Sunday morning.
A Frost Advisory may be needed again Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The upper level trough will move off east of the area as the
surface high moves south/southeast of the area on Monday. This
will allow for southerly winds to return to the area returning
highs into the upper 60s to the lower 70s Monday afternoon.
Southerly winds will start to increase on Monday as a dry air
mass remains in place resulting in the potential for elevated
fire weather conditions again Monday afternoon.

An upper level trough will move across the northern Plains on
Monday night then moving into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday
night. This will send a cold front south into the area on
Tuesday. The surface high pressure across the Gulf Coast states
will limit moisture return ahead of this system. Scattered
showers and a few storms will be possible along the front, with
the better chances across central Missouri on to the northeast
of the area closer to the better upper level support. Coverage
across the western portions of the area may be more limited and
not all locations may be affected by this activity. The ensemble
model members show the front stalling over southern Missouri
into Arkansas, as they differ slightly on exactly where the
front stalls. If the front does stall over southern Missouri
some scattered showers a few storms will remain possible at
times on Wednesday into Thursday. If the front stalls further
south of the area the better rain chances will also occur south
of the area.

An upper level low will move on to the west Coast mid week then
will move into the central Plains late week. The ensemble
members all show this feature but do differ slightly on the
exact timing and track of the system. Upper level ridging will
build over the region ahead of the trough and as the trough
moves east surface low pressure will develop and move across the
plains with the warm front lifting north through the area
Thursday into Friday morning depending on the exact timing.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the warm front. As
the surface low track northeast a cold front will move east into
the region Friday into Friday night. Additional thunderstorm
chances will occur along the front. Better moisture return from
the Gulf will occur ahead of the front. As a result instability
will increase across the area and allow for the potential for
strong to severe storms along the front Friday into Friday
night. Will have to continue to monitor for the exact track and
timing of the system along with just how much instability will
develop across the area. Another upper level trough will then
move east off the west coast late this weekend and the front may
stall over the area this weekend with additional shower and
storm chances at times Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. Some high and mid-level clouds are transiting across the
region, which are expected to give way to clear skies as Sunday
progresses. The light northerly winds of the overnight hours
will increase with some gusts up to 20kts for a few hours Sunday
afternoon, calming back down in the evening.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-078>083-090>092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Camden