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000
FXUS63 KSGF 111108
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather potential this
  afternoon. Gusty northwest winds up to 35 mph with localized
  gusts up 30 to 40 mph this morning and afternoon. Relative
  humidity values will drop as low as 25-40%. Additional
  elevated fire weather potential Friday and Saturday.

- High confidence in drier weather and above normal temperatures
  this weekend with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

- Storm chances return early next week with severe weather
  possible Monday into Wednesday next week, but confidence is
  low on details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

An area of surface low pressure is currently located to the
southeast of the region early this morning. On the back side of
the low some light rain showers will remain possible across
portions of south central Missouri this morning, with all the
rain moving out of the area by the mid morning hours.

An upper level trough will move southeast through the region
today and will push the surface low off to the east. The
pressure gradient will tighten across the area this morning and
afternoon between the surface low to the east and surface high
pressure across the plains. Gusts of 30 to 35 mph will develop
across the region this morning and afternoon, with a few gusts
up to 40 mph possible at times. The strongest winds will likely
be late morning into early afternoon with gusts gradually
weakening but remaining gusty into the early evening hours. The
winds should then weaken fairly quickly early this evening once
the sun begins to the set.

Clouds will clear from west to east this morning with the upper
level trough. A drier air mass will move into the area today as
afternoon humidity values drop to around 25 to 40 percent. The
driest conditions will be across southeastern Kansas. These dry
conditions combined with the gusty winds will allow elevated to
locally significant fire weather conditions this afternoon,
mainly west of Highway 65. The areas where the lowest humidity
values are expected today did see around one half inch to one
inch of rain yesterday which will add to fuel moisture.

Highs this afternoon will warm into the middle 60s under mostly
sunny skies. Lows tonight into Friday will drop into the upper
30s to the lower 40s. An upper level ridge will build east
across the plains on Friday and will allow a warmer air mass to
start to move into the region. Highs on Friday will warm into
the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The upper level ridge will build over the region on Saturday
along with a warmer air mass. Highs will warm into the upper
70s to the lower 80s. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop
with gusts up to around 30 to 35 mph at times. A drier air mass
will remain in place as afternoon humidity values drop to
around 30 percent. This will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions developing again on Saturday.

A weak upper level disturbance will move through the region
Saturday evening and night, flatting the ridge. A dry air mass
will be in place so not expecting any rain with this
disturbance. The upper level ridge will build right back over
the region on Sunday with 850mb temps in the upper teen to
lower 20C advecting into the region on Sunday. This will
support highs warming into the lower to middle 80s Sunday
afternoon.

The ensemble model members show an upper level low digging into
the southwestern CONUS on Sunday then moving east on Monday. The
00Z models overall have trended a little slower with this
system. As a result rain chances will be lower through much of
the day on Monday and highs will warm into the lower to middle
80s again during the afternoon hours.

Surface low pressure will move northeast across the central
Plains Monday evening and night and into Iowa on Tuesday. A cold
front will remain west of the area Monday night then will move
east through the area on Tuesday. There is still some
differences on the exact timing of the front on Tuesday. Storms
will develop ahead of the front Monday evening and night and
could move into portions of the area during this time frame and
additional showers and storms will be possible along the front
on Tuesday. There could be potential for strong to severe
storms Monday evening into Tuesday depending on how much
instability can develop across the region and the exact timing
of the front. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across the
region Monday and Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens
across the area east and south of the surface low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions will occur across the area today. Mid level
clouds are currently over the area but will clear from west to
east this morning. Gusty northwesterly winds will occur this
morning into early this evening, then light winds are expected
tonight into Friday morning. Low level wind shear will be
possible this morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise