609
FXUS63 KSGF 081950
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms expected today with very large hail up to
  the size of baseballs, damaging winds up to 60-80 mph, and
  tornadoes. First round in the morning to mid afternoon with
  round two in the late afternoon and evening. Highest potential
  for severe storms along and southeast of a Joplin to Warsaw
  line.

- Localized heavy rainfall may result in flooding, especially
  for areas northeast of a line from Stockton to Marshfield to
  Eminence. A Flood Watch has been issued for this area, where
  storms may drop 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher
  amounts of 3 to 6 inches.

- Drier and cooler conditions for late week and weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The region will see active weather this afternoon through this
evening. A warm remained located across central Missouri. A
cold front was also located across eastern Kansas into eastern
Oklahoma. The Ozarks and far southeastern Kansas are the warm
sector with increasing moisture and instability as the region
saw no significant precipitation of storms this morning.
Analysis this afternoon continued to show several boundaries
across the region thanks to earlier convection, differential
heating from cloud cover and other small scale waves.

The region, in the warm sector, has seen temperatures increase
to into the lower to middle 80s with Td`s in the upper 60s to
around 70. This is helping to produce a favorably unstable
airmass over the area. Models as indicating between 2500-4500
J/kg of CAPE this afternoon with no CAP over the region. The
latest runs show 0-6KM Bulk shear in the 40-50kt range from the
WSW with a 35 to 45kt LLJ over the region. This is accompanied
by upper level support from a strong 250mb Jet streak.

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 00z (7PM) with the potential
for large hail, to baseballs in size, with 1000-1300 j/kg of
CAPE in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 *C). This, coupled with
a relatively long straight Hodograph support, supercells with
splitting cells possible. Winds from 60 to 80 mph will also be
possible along with tornadoes.

Looking at some of the CIPS/SPC analogs, several matches to
current parameters showed storms with up to softball hail
possible.

A cold front will move through the area tonight which will shift
winds to the northwest. This will also bring into the region
drier air and a cooler airmass. Overnight lows will fall into
the upper 50s as the cooler air filters into the region with
clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The region will be under southwesterly to westerly flow aloft
Thursday with a shortwave ridge moving across the plains into
the Ozarks. With mostly clear skies but a cooler airmass,
afternoon highs will still climb into the middle 70`s.

Friday into Sunday - An upper level trough will swing out of
the northern plains and drag cooler air and quiet weather into
the region Friday with the upper level pattern becoming
northwesterly allowing surface high pressure to move over the
area for the weekend.

Sunday night into Tuesday - Upper level ridging will slide over
the region Sunday as an upper level low digs into the plains.
Southwesterly flow will begin to allow increasing moisture to
filter into the region through the day. By Sunday night the
ridge will shift east as the upper low slides into the central
plains before moving into the Ozarks though the day Monday. This
will be accompanied by areas of rainfall and scattered
thunderstorms though severe potential is very limited at this
time. The low will make slow progress across the Ozarks
lingering in into Tuesday with continued chances for showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Through 00z to 03z or slightly later, the regions terminals may
be impacted by strong thunderstorms. Away from storms flight
conditions will be MVFR with brief periods of VFR conditions.
Ceilings will be the primary concern. Where storms occur, flight
conditions will deteriorate quickly with MVFR to IFR conditions.
Airfields may see high wind and hail impacts with the strongest
storms.

The storm system will progress through the region likely by 03z
though some light precipitation may linger. However, behind the
storms, flight conditions will improve to VFR as ceilings lift
and cloud cover becomes scattered to few.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-091-092-098.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch