000
FXUS66 KSGX 151525
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
824 AM PDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TROUGHS OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH MODULATING THE DAY TO DAY
WEATHER. THE MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
CLEARING TO NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
DESERTS LATE EACH DAY THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE JUST AROUND THE CORNER...DAYLIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE HAS JUST ABOUT PEAKED. SUNRISES ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO SLIP LATER HERE IN SAN DIEGO...BUT IT WON`T BE UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WE SEE THE LATEST SUNSET AROUND 8 PM PDT.

OUR EARLY SUNRISE SHOWS MARINE STRATUS WELL INTO THE VALLEYS AGAIN
THIS MORNING...SOLID AND EXTENSIVE OFFSHORE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING HAD A 10 DEGREE C INVERSION BASE NEAR 2300 FT. WEAK SE
WINDS WERE INDICATED BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
ABOVE. THE S-SE FLOW AT COASTAL SITES SUGGESTED A WEAK EDDY WAS
PRESENT. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE 4-7 MBS ONSHORE TO THE DESERTS
WITH MODERATE ONSHORE TRENDS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT...EXCEPT
NEAR THE BANNING PASS WHERE LOCAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH WERE MEASURED.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE INDICATED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OFF THE PACNW COAST NEAR
140W THIS MORNING. THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW COVERED THE
WEST COAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...REACHING
OREGON ON WED. WHEN IT MOVES INLAND...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER
AND INLAND COOLING TUE/WED. UNTIL THEN...SOME WARMING IS LIKELY
INLAND AS THE MARINE LAYER SHRINKS UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DESERTS...AND CONTINUE LATE INTO THE EVENING
WHEN THE THERMAL LOW WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS.

THERE ARE NO NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WELL OUT INTO THE MEDIUM
RANGE...SO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE IS WAS FAVORED TO SMOOTH OUT ANY
DETERMINISTIC RUN HICCUPS. THIS KEEPS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH POSITION
NEAR THE WEST COAST...WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND GULF COAST REGION. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE DRY...SEASONAL WEATHER
OVER SOCAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH MARINE CLOUDS EACH
NIGHT/MORNING... AND VERY WARM...DRY CONDITIONS INLAND OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/MTNS/ DESERTS. TYPICAL SEA BREEZES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BECOMING GUSTY LATE EACH DAY/EVENING THROUGH THE PASSES
AND INTO THE DESERTS. STRONGEST MTN/DESERT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUE...WHEN LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
151522Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS...WHICH IS ABOUT 25-45 SM INLAND
WITH BASES 1600-1900 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2700 FT MSL...WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH 1800 UTC AND PARTIALLY CLEAR
OUT OF THE COASTAL AREAS BY 2000 UTC. 2000-16/0200 UTC...MOSTLY SKC
AND UNRESTRICTED VIS. CHANCE THAT SCT-BKN CLDS 2200-2400 FT MSL WILL
LINGER WITHIN 5 SM OF THE COAST...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN BKN CIGS TO
KSAN...KSNA AND KCRQ AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THIS OCCURRING. 16/0200-0600 UTC...STRATUS MOVING BACK INLAND AND
EVENTUALLY REACHING 25-45 SM INLAND AGAIN BY 16/1400 UTC...WITH
BASES 1300-1600 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 2700 FT MSL.

MTNS/DESERTS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING WINDS NEAR POINT-CONCEPTION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL
BRING A FRESH SHORT-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...PEAKING AT 8-9 FEET IN
THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS...FOR TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

ALSO...WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY...WITH
GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15
PERCENT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS EACH AFTERNOON...
AND GUSTY ONSHORE BREEZES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE
PASSES AND ON THE DESERT SLOPES WHERE WINDS COULD GUST LOCALLY TO 35
MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUE/TUE
EVENING WHEN GUSTS THROUGH AND BELOW THE WINDIEST PASSES COULD TOP
40 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS LATE IN THE DAY.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL FLUCTUATE IN DEPTH BUT REMAIN INTACT OVER THE
COASTAL...INTO AND WESTERN VALLEYS EACH DAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON