000
FXUS66 KSGX 181631
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND ALONG THE WEST OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MARINE
LAYER AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.  GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POISED
ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
MOVING INSIDE OF 130 WEST AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS IN THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...AROUND 1500 FEET
ACCORDING TO THE 12Z KNKX SOUNDING...LINGERING ALONG THE COAST.  AT
THIS POINT IN TIME...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED MOST OF SAN DIEGO
COUNTY COAST...BUT THE NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS ORANGE COUNTY ARE
STILL QUITE CLOUDY.  THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE COAST
TODAY...BEFORE COMING BACK INLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY.  GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AT 850 MBS IS 30 TO 35 KTS...WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THESE WINDS RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY.  FOR THIS
REASON...A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE BANNING PASS.  THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO
THE DESERT AREAS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY...BUT AT THIS TIME...THINK ANY
GUSTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOCALIZED TO THE FAVORED WINDY SPOTS.

THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS...WITH SOME MINOR COOLING POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE.
AN EDDY WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP EACH NIGHT AS WELL...BUT NOT EXPECT
MUCH GROWTH IN THE MARINE LAYER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY.  THE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO REDEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH DAY.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SHIFT INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST.
IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...SO INLAND AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME MINOR
WARMING.  HOWEVER...EXPECT ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS IN THE MARINE LAYER.

THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR NEXT WEEK...AS THE 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUES WITH THE IDEA OF THE TROUGH...BUT AT LEAST THE 06Z GFS
SHOWED A BUILDING RIDGE.  THEREFORE...WILL AWAIT THE REST OF THE 12Z
RUNS BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
181530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MARINE LAYER STRATUS...WITH BASES AROUND
1000 FT MSL AND TOPS NEAR 1600 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING. LOWERED VIS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDS BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDS FORECAST
THROUGH THIS AFTN. LOW CLOUDS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOPS AND
BASES...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING...AND PUSH
AROUND 30 SM INLAND BY MID WED MORNING. VIS 2-4 SM BR IS EXPECTED
WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.

MTNS/DESERTS...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT WILL DEVELOP OVER MTN
RIDGES AND DESERT MTN SLOPES THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY
STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LLWS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF KPSP.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE A SHORT-PERIOD COMBINED SWELL UP TO 8 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT...AND WILL IMPROVE EARLY
WED MORNING.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE COACHELLA VALLEY.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN
     CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PALMER
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT