666
FXUS64 KSHV 010539
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1239 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

All is quiet attm across the Four State Region as our cu field has
completely dissipated with just some high blowoff cirrus trying to
invade our far west and northwest counties attm. Winds should go
mostly light overnight and thus we could see some fog once again
but it should not be to the extent that we saw early this morning
prompting Dense Fog Advisories.

Watching a complex of thunderstorms currently across SE KS,
trying to enter northern and NE OK attm. Upper flow is mostly
zonal to WSW aloft across the Southern Plains and upstream of our
region but this activity is trying to drift slowly south and east.
Latest HRRR tries to generate what looks like a cold pool with
this convection late tonight with that convection continuing south
and east with some of it entering far northern McCurtain County
closer to 12z Wed. Did add just a little pops across our far
northwest zones to account for this possibility as a southwest low
level jet will likely continue feeding this complex through the
night.

Otherwise, temps are in the ballpark so no additional changes were
necessary.

Update out shortly...13.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The latest water vapor imagery indicates a rather broad area of
mid and upper level dry air from the Southern Plains into the
Southeast CONUS. With a surface ridge moving farther east tonight
while a lee surface trough strengthens over the High Plains, low-
level moisture will begin to gradually increase. This should
result in more low clouds during the early morning hours of
Wednesday. Patchy fog will also be possible but current thinking
is increased surface wind speeds and increased low-level cloud
cover may limit the potential for dense fog as compared to Tuesday
morning.

A weak disturbance in the zonal flow aloft will provide the
potential for at least a isolated showers or thunderstorms on
Wednesday. The first opportunity will be limited to portions of
Southeast Oklahoma and extreme Northeast Texas Wednesday morning.
However, rain chances will spread southward during the afternoon.
There may be a brief lull in the rain chances early Wednesday
evening, but the flow aloft will quickly become more southwesterly
and will amplify resulting in a rapid increase in deep layer
moisture. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop from Kansas southward into Texas ahead of a cold
front and dryline. These storms should move into the area after
midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Strong large scale
forcing and abundant deep layer moisture may result in locally
heavy rainfall, especially across Deep East Texas. Severe weather
chances appear low at this time.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing Thursday
morning, especially across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas,
East Texas, and portions of Western Louisiana. Vertical ascent is
expected to be quite strong during the day Thursday as a shortwave
trough moves east-northeast across the forecast area. Combined
with precipitable water values over 2 inches, locally heavy
rainfall is likely, particularly south of Interstate 20 across
East Texas and into Western Louisiana. Thursday`s convection is
expected to be well ahead of the cold front, and more showers and
thunderstorms are likely as the front moves into the area on
Friday before stalling north of Interstate 20. The heaviest
rainfall rates are generally expected on Thursday, but the threat
of heavy rain should finally diminish Friday afternoon as the
front begins lifting back northward into Oklahoma and Arkansas.

The remainder of the long-term forecast will remain quite
unsettled. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist and a series of
weak perturbations in the flow will keep chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Friday and Saturday.
Rain chances may increase across the northwest half of the area on
Sunday as a stronger shortwave trough lifts northeast across Texas
and Oklahoma. Deep southerly flow will provide plenty of warm air
advection and moisture to fuel convection.

Despite the persistent rain chances, during the weekend, the
strong warm air advection will keep a warming trend in place.
Daytime high temperatures should be well into the 80s and possibly
into the lower 90s early next week. With the rainfall and wet
soils, very humid conditions can be expected to accompany the
heat.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

For the 01/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions prevail across ArkLaTex
airspace at this hour, with emerging high clouds blowing south and
east from the areas of convection in south central Oklahoma, and
otherwise SKC conditions. The presence of these high clouds may
inhibit fog development as extensive as last night`s.
Nevertheless, retaining slight VIS reductions, as shallow areas of
mist may still be possible before daybreak. VFR conditions will
otherwise continue uninterrupted aside from some lowering CIGs
during the afternoon hours. Winds will remain southeasterly
throughout, at light speeds of less than 5 kts overnight,
recovering to 5 to 10 kts sustained through the afternoon with
gusts of up to 15 kts possible.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  70  78  71 /  10  20  90  60
MLU  87  66  80  68 /   0  10  60  60
DEQ  85  64  75  62 /  10  30  90  70
TXK  85  68  77  67 /  10  30  90  70
ELD  86  64  77  64 /   0  10  70  70
TYR  85  68  79  69 /  30  60  90  50
GGG  85  68  78  69 /  30  40  90  60
LFK  85  69  81  69 /  40  30  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26