Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
576
AXUS74 KSHV 291530
DGTSHV
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-010000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2016

...VERY LITTLE RAINFALL DURING SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAS RESULTED IN
SEVERE AND MODERATE DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER OBSERVING AN UNUSUALLY WET AUGUST, VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN RECORDED ACROSS ALL OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AREA DURING SEPTEMBER AND
OCTOBER, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME. 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES CONTINUED THROUGH
THE THIRD WEEK OF OCTOBER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA,
WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO PERSISTING THROUGH LATE
OCTOBER. THESE ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS CURRENTLY FELT OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE
THE FINAL WEEK OF AUGUST HAVE ONLY TALLIED TO A HALF-INCH TO JUST OVER AN
INCH OVER THESE AREAS, WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH AND A HALF TO JUST OVER TWO
INCHES OVER THE REMAINDER EAST TEXAS, NORTH LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS,
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE TOTALS ARE ONLY A THIRD OR LESS OF THE NORMAL
RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ONLY ENHANCING THE EVAPORATION RATES AND
FURTHER AGGRAVATING THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

AS A RESULT, SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG A SULPHUR SPRINGS TO MOUNT VERNON, MOUNT
PLEASANT, PITTSBURG AND DAINGERFIELD LINE. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE
ALSO DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN BOWIE COUNTY TEXAS AND NORTHERN MILLER COUNTY
ARKANSAS NEAR TEXARKANA, AS WELL AS MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA EAST OF A
BASTROP TO MONROE AND COLUMBIA LINE. MODERATE (D1) DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED SURROUNDING THESE SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS,
SOUTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS STILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OKLAHOMA, CHEROKEE, RUSK, WESTERN NACOGDOCHES AND ANGELINA COUNTIES IN DEEP
EAST TEXAS, AS WELL AS COLUMBIA AND UNION COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
WEBSTER, CLAIBORNE, AND NORTHERN BIENVILLE PARISHES IN NORTH LOUISIANA.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN TOPSOIL
MOISTURE...EVEN AFTER A VERY WET AUGUST ACROSS THE REGION. NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF BROWNED/DORMANT PASTURES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS HAS BEEN RECEIVED...WITH
PRODUCERS ALREADY HAVING TO GIVE WINTER SUPPLIES TO MUCH OF THEIR LIVESTOCK
DUE TO THE LACK OF GRAZING. STOCK POND LEVELS HAVE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY OR
ARE NEARLY DRY ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SUMMER HAY
CUTTING HAS BEEN COMPLETED...WITH SOME PRODUCERS WAITING FOR RAIN BEFORE
PLANTING THEIR WINTER GRAZING GRASSES.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
BURN BANS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR RED RIVER AND SHELBY COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS...AS WELL AS HEMPSTEAD COUNTY ARKANSAS...AND FOR SABINE...
NATCHITOCHES...WINN...LA SALLE...CALDWELL...OUACHITA...AND UNION PARISHES
IN NORTH LOUISIANA. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES...AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRES HAVE BEEN
NOTED ESPECIALLY OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. FIRE DANGER WILL
REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SMALLER RURAL WATER
SYSTEMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS. NO OTHER KNOWN WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE IN EFFECT
AT THIS TIME.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
SINCE THE FINAL WEEK OF AUGUST...MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE OCTOBER AVERAGE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL (THROUGH 10/29), THEIR DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL, AND PERCENTAGES OF NORMAL, FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION:

CITY:              OCTOBER 2016          DEPARTURE             RANK:
                  (THROUGH 10/28)       FROM NORMAL      (WARMEST ON RECORD)

SHREVEPORT LA          72.2                +5.3                T5TH
NOTE: RECORDS SINCE 1874.

MONROE LA              70.7                +4.1                 5TH
NOTE: RECORDS SINCE 1930.

TEXARKANA AR           70.4                +5.4                T9TH
NOTE: RECORDS SINCE 1892.

EL DORADO AR           67.9                +3.7
NOTE: RECORDS SINCE 1892. OCTOBER 2016 DOES NOT RANK IN THE TOP 20
      WARMEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD.

DEQUEEN AR             68.4                +4.7                T2ND
NOTE: RECORDS SINCE 1902.

TYLER TX               72.9                +5.5                 4TH
NOTE: RECORDS SINCE 1883.

LONGVIEW TX            71.1                +4.6                 9TH
NOTE: RECORDS SINCE 1902.

LUFKIN TX              71.5                +3.4                T13TH
NOTE: RECORDS SINCE 1906.

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS:
MT. HERMAN             67.6                +4.7
BROKEN BOW             66.3                +3.4
IDABEL                 68.4                +6.2


CITY:              OCTOBER 2016          DEPARTURE          PERCENTAGE
                     RAINFALL           FROM NORMAL          OF NORMAL
                  (THROUGH 10/29)

SHREVEPORT LA         0.98              -3.65                  21%

MONROE LA             0.54              -3.96                  12%
NOTE: OCTOBER CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 9TH DRIEST ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE
      1930.

NATCHITOCHES LA       0.09              -4.32                   2%
NOTE: OCTOBER CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 5TH DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.
      RECORDS SINCE 1893.

JENA 4WSW LA          0.00              -5.10                    0%
NOTE: OCTOBER CURRENTLY TIES WITH 2005 AS THE DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.
      RECORDS SINCE 1986.

TEXARKANA AR          0.24              -4.39                    5%
NOTE: OCTOBER CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 3RD DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.
      RECORDS SINCE 1892.

EL DORADO AR          2.09              -2.77                    45%

HOPE 3NE AR           1.08              -3.84                    22%
NOTE: OCTOBER CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 15TH DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.
      RECORDS SINCE 1892.

DEQUEEN AR            0.81              -3.48                    19%
NOTE: OCTOBER CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 10TH DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD.
      RECORDS SINCE 1902.

MT. PLEASANT TX       0.37              -4.37                     8%
NOTE: OCTOBER CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 5TH DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD. RECORDS
      SINCE 1941.

TYLER TX              1.22              -3.32                    27%
(AIRPORT)

TYLER TX              1.21              -3.34                    27%
(COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)
NOTE: OCTOBER CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD. RECORDS
      SINCE 1984.

LONGVIEW TX           0.79              -3.55                    18%

MARSHALL TX           1.75              -2.84                    38%

LUFKIN TX             0.15              -4.35                     3%
NOTE: OCTOBER CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 4TH DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD. RECORDS
      SINCE 1907.

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS:
MT. HERMAN            1.66              -3.48                    32%
BROKEN BOW            0.45              -4.69                     9%
IDABEL                0.08              -4.91                     2%


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE AREAWIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ACROSS EAST TEXAS TUESDAY, WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER EAST TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING TO THE REGION.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-
JANUARY, ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC), INDICATES ABOVE
NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A
WEAK LA NINA THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WHICH TYPICALLY
BRINGS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE WINTER MONTHS. THUS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WINTER.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
MANY LAKES AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR POOL STAGE...ALTHOUGH LAKES SUCH AS
WRIGHT PATMAN...LAKE OF THE PINES...CADDO...CROSS...FORK...MARTIN...AS WELL
AS SAM RAYBURN AND TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIRS HAVE FALLEN SOME TWO TO THREE
FEET BELOW NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE TO SLOW FALLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MID NOVEMBER AS THE ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY MID TO LATE
NOVEMBER.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT HOMEPAGE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SHV
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM: WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
TX OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.MET.TAMI.EDU/OSC
OK CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV
UNITED STATE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURAL COMMUNICATIONS-AGNEWS: HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU
LA DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY: HTTP://WWW.LDAF.STATE.LA.US/
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE: HTTP://WWW.TEXASFORESTSERVICE.TAMU.EDU
ARKANSAS FIRE INFO: HTTP://WWW.ARKFIREINFO.ORG
OKLAHOMA FORESTRY SERVICES: HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV/WILDLAND-FIRE
LSU AG CENTER: HTTP://WWW.LSUAGCENTER.COM

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATED COLLABORATION AMONGST VARIOUS
AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...STATE
CLIMATOLOGISTS...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE U.S. DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FROM THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED
FROM NWS/FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...THE USDA...THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS...
USGS...TEXAS FOREST SERVICE...TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER...
ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION...AND THE OKLAHOMA FORESTRY SERVICES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
5655 HOLLYWOOD AVE.
SHREVEPORT LA 71109

PHONE: (318) 631-3669
EMAIL: SR-SHV.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

15/HANSFORD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.