Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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AXUS74 KSHV 011930
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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION...

SYNOPSIS...

THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF AUGUST REMAINED VERY HOT AND DRY, CONTINUING THE
TREND OF A HOT AND DRY JULY WHICH ATTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLASH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN FACT, SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION EITHER SET OR RANKED IN THE TOP 10 FOR THE LONGEST
NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL, RECORDING 40 DAYS
OR MORE BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND AFFECTED
MUCH OF THE REGION ON AUGUST 19TH, WHEN A WEAK COOL FRONT SLOWLY BACKDOORED
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT, ONE TO THREE PLUS INCHES OF RAIN FELL
ON THE 19TH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REPORTED NEAR INTERSTATE
20 BETWEEN WASKOM TEXAS AND GREENWOOD LOUISIANA WHERE AMOUNTS OF FOUR TO SIX
INCHES FELL IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. RAINFALL WAS MORE SPOTTY ELSEWHERE ACROSS
DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA WITH THIS EVENT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE
REGION IN LATE AUGUST, BUT DID VERY LITTLE TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA, WHERE SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RANKED WITHIN THE TOP 15 DRIEST AUGUSTS ON RECORD.

AS A RESULT, SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED OVER FRANKLIN,
TITUS, CAMP, MORRIS, CASS, MARION, AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN EAST TEXAS,
WITH THE HEAVY RAINS ON AUGUST 19TH RESULTING IN A DOWNGRADE TO MODERATE
(D1) DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF EAST TEXAS. SEVERE (D2)
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OKLAHOMA, AS WELL AS NORTHERN CADDO AND WESTERN SABINE PARISHES,
AND MUCH OF BIENVILLE, CLAIBORNE, LINCOLN, AND UNION PARISHES IN NORTH
LOUISIANA. MODERATE (D1) DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH LOUISIANA, MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND NORTHERN
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA, WITH ADDITIONAL DEGRADATION POSSIBLE DURING
SEPTEMBER AS HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MULTIPLE COUNTY/PARISH BURN BANS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS EAST
TEXAS, NORTH LOUISIANA, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES AND PARISHES LIKELY BEING ADDED TO THIS LIST IN THE NEAR FUTURE,
AS THE FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
DESPITE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PRODUCED NEEDED RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE THIRD AND FOURTH WEEK OF AUGUST,
TOPSOIL MOISTURE REMAINS DRY, WITH HAY HARVESTING OVER UNTIL GRASS
GROWTH RESUMES. CORN WAS A COMPLETE LOSS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA, WITH MANY OTHER VEGETABLES SUFFERING
FROM THE DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR RED RIVER, FRANKLIN, TITUS, CAMP, MORRIS,
BOWIE, CHEROKEE, NACOGDOCHES, ANGELINA, SHELBY, SAN AUGUSTINE, AND
SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST TEXAS. IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, A BURN BAN IS
IN EFFECT FOR HEMPSTEAD COUNTY. IN NORTH LOUISIANA, BURN BANS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR CADDO, DESOTO, RED RIVER, BIENVILLE, CLAIBORNE, LINCOLN,
JACKSON, UNION, OUACHITA, CALDWELL, WINN, LA SALLE, NATCHITOCHES,
AND SABINE PARISHES. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, AND ADDITIONAL BURN BANS ARE LIKELY UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD,
WETTING RAINFALL IS OBSERVED.

CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS.
NO WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT, AS MANY LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CONSERVATION POOL STAGE IN
WAKE OF THE EXCESSIVELY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL DURING THIS PAST
SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAD RECORDED MEASURABLE RAIN FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN OVER 6 WEEKS DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF AUGUST, ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCALES RECORDED BELOW OR MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH. THE
GREATEST MONTHLY TOTALS FELL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF EAST TEXAS
AND EXTREME WESTERN LOUISIANA BETWEEN TYLER TEXAS AND GREENWOOD LOUISIANA.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE AUGUST MONTHLY RAINFALL, THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL,
AND PERCENTAGES OF NORMAL, FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION:

CITY:              AUGUST 2015         DEPARTURE          PERCENTAGE
                    RAINFALL          FROM NORMAL          OF NORMAL

SHREVEPORT LA         2.12              -0.61                 78%

MONROE LA             0.41              -2.77                 13%
NOTE: AUGUST RANKED AS THE 4TH DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD, BEHIND 0.05 INCHES
      (2013), 0.20 INCHES (1980), AND 0.37 INCHES (2000). RECORDS SINCE 1930.

NATCHITOCHES LA       1.10              -2.00                 35%
NOTE: AUGUST RANKED AS THE 18TH DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1923.

JENA 4WSW LA          0.50              -2.60                 16%
NOTE: AUGUST RANKED AS THE DRIEST AUGUST IN THE LAST 29 YEARS, SURPASSING
      0.53 INCHES IN 2000. RECORDS SINCE 1986.

TEXARKANA AR          0.80              -2.11                 27%
NOTE: AUGUST RANKED AT THE 15TH DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1892.

EL DORADO AR          0.57              -2.54                 18%
NOTE: AUGUST RANKED AS THE 9TH DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1892.

HOPE 3NE AR           2.36              -0.68                 78%

DEQUEEN AR            0.83              -1.34                 38%

MT. PLEASANT TX       0.69              -1.52                 31%
NOTE: AUGUST RANKED AS THE 12TH DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1941.

TYLER TX              2.01              -0.85                 70%
(AIRPORT)

TYLER TX              2.67              +0.01                100%
(COOPERATIVE OBSERVING STATION)

LONGVIEW TX           1.79              -1.23                 59%

MARSHALL TX           4.37              +1.76                167%

LUFKIN TX             0.44              -2.90                 13%
NOTE: AUGUST RANKED AS THE 8TH DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD. RECORDS SINCE 1907.


SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MESONET STATIONS:
MT. HERMAN            1.12              -1.84                 38%
BROKEN BOW            1.81              -1.15                 61%
IDABEL                0.48              -2.05                 19%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

THIS PROLONGED HEAT WAVE THAT CONTINUED INTO AUGUST ALSO RESULTED IN MUCH BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE
JULY-AUGUST MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS, THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL, PERCENT OF
NORMAL, AND HOW THEY RANKED AS THE DRIEST JULY-AUGUST TWO MONTH PERIOD ON RECORD,
FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION:

CITY:              JULY/AUGUST 2015    DEPARTURE   PERCENT OF   RANKING
                    TOTAL RAINFALL    FROM NORMAL   NORMAL     (TOP 20)

SHREVEPORT LA           2.71             -3.67       42%

MONROE LA               1.62             -5.13       24%          8TH

TEXARKANA AR            3.30             -3.05       52%

EL DORADO AR            2.58             -4.09       39%         18TH

DEQUEEN AR              3.53             -2.42       59%

TYLER TX                2.05             -3.45       38%         N/A
NOTE: DUE TO EXCESSIVE MISSING DATA THROUGH THE TYLER CLIMATOLOGICAL HISTORY,
      THE JULY-AUGUST RANKING WAS NOT AVAILABLE.

LONGVIEW TX             1.94             -3.97       33%

LUFKIN TX               1.37             -5.02       22%         3RD
NOTE: AUGUST 2015 FALLS JUST BELOW 1993 (0.60 INCHES) AND 2000 (0.71 INCHES)
      AS THE DRIEST JULY-AUGUST TIMEFRAME ON RECORD.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

UNTIL THE THIRD WEEK OF AUGUST, SEVERAL LOCATIONS EITHER RECORDED THE MOST
OR RANKED IN THE TOP 10 FOR CONSECUTIVE NUMBER OF DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. HERE IS HOW THEY RANKED:

LOCATION              OLD RECORD               NEW RECORD
------------------------------------------------------------------
EL DORADO AR           40 DAYS                  44 DAYS
 (PERIOD:      SEPT 9 TO OCT 18, 2010     JULY 6 TO AUG 18, 2015
  RECORDS SINCE 1907)

THE FOLLOWING STATIONS RANKED IN THE TOP 10 LONGEST CONSECUTIVE NUMBER
OF DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL:

LOCATION             2015 STREAK         OLD RECORD        RANK
------------------------------------------------------------------
SHREVEPORT LA          44 DAYS            46 DAYS          T3RD
 (PERIOD:       JULY 6-AUG 18, 2015  OCT 3-NOV 17, 1921
  TIED WITH:    DEC 4-JAN 16, 1955-56
  RECORDS SINCE 1874)

TYLER TX               42 DAYS            57 DAYS          T5TH
 (PERIOD:      JULY 8-AUG 18, 2015   JUL 21-SEPT 15, 1952
  TIED WITH:   MAY 17-JUN 27, 1953
  RECORDS SINCE 1896)
NOTE: DUE TO MISSING DATA, THERE MAY BE INACCURACIES IN THE ORIGINAL
      RECORD OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

LONGVIEW TX            42 DAYS            76 DAYS           7TH
 (PERIOD:      JULY 8-AUG 18, 2015   JUN 3-AUG 17, 1924


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE REGION BY THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED AT BEST AS HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AMPLIFIES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY FLATTENING. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FOUR STATE
REGION, THUS MAINTAINING THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW ONE-QUARTER INCH,
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THUS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER, ISSUED BY
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC), INDICATES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. EQUAL CHANCES FOR
SEEING ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF EAST TEXAS, SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS, AND NORTH LOUISIANA. THE
THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH NOVEMBER ALSO INDICATES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL PROBABILITIES FOR SEEING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE. THE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WETTER CONDITIONS THIS FALL IS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING EL NINO IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, WHICH BRING COOLER AND WETTER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS LATER THIS FALL AND WINTER. THUS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD DIMINISH OR END COMPLETELY BY THE END OF THE WINTER.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
RESERVOIR AND LAKE POOL STAGES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, EAST TEXAS,
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND NORTH LOUISIANA REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
CONSERVATION POOL STAGE AFTER THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT FELL DURING THE
SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER. A SLOW RECESSION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
SEPTEMBER GIVEN THE CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES, INCREASED EVAPORATION, AND
LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED. SOME SMALLER CREEKS AND BAYOUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS, NORTH LOUISIANA, AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE
FALLEN BELOW NORMAL, WITH NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS MONTH.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT HOMEPAGE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SHV
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM: WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
TX OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.MET.TAMI.EDU/OSC
OK CLIMATOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://CLIMATE.OK.GOV
UNITED STATE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURAL COMMUNICATIONS-AGNEWS: HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU
LA DEPT. OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY: HTTP://WWW.LDAF.STATE.LA.US/
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE: HTTP://WWW.TEXASFORESTSERVICE.TAMU.EDU
ARKANSAS FIRE INFO: HTTP://WWW.ARKFIREINFO.ORG
OKLAHOMA FORESTRY SERVICES: HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.OK.GOV/WILDLAND-FIRE
LSU AG CENTER: HTTP://WWW.LSUAGCENTER.COM

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATED COLLABORATION AMONGST VARIOUS
AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...STATE
CLIMATOLOGISTS...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE U.S. DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FROM THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED
FROM NWS/FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...THE USDA...THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS...
USGS...TEXAS FOREST SERVICE...TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER...
ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION...AND THE OKLAHOMA FORESTRY SERVICES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
5655 HOLLYWOOD AVE.
SHREVEPORT LA 71109

PHONE: (318) 631-3669
EMAIL: SR-SHV.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

15/HANSFORD



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