National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 182027
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENTLY WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE BIG
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE JUST TO OUR WEST.
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WAS OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THERE IS EXTREME INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR FOR
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...NORTHERN CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 PM FOR THESE AREAS. COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A RUN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BE LOCATED NEAR A CROSS PLAINS TO JUNCTION LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM MODEL TAKES THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WOULD BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSTMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. IT WILL BE A REPEAT
MONDAY...WITH THE DRYLINE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CWFA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH ISOLD POPS IN THE SAME AREA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY
AND GOOD 0-6KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ANY STORM QUICKLY BECOMING
SEVERE...IF THE MID LEVEL CAP IS BREACHED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND TSTMS WILL
BE DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL BE STILL BE IN
THE AREA...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX AGAIN DUE TO THE
DECENT INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOOKS MAINLY VERY WARM AND DRY THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  71  97  67  95  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANGELO  72 101  68 100  67 /  10   5   5  10  10
JUNCTION  70  94  70  95  69 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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