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000
FXUS64 KSJT 161736 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1236 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE
KABI TERMINAL TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND THAT THEY
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...AND HAVE GONE WITH SIMILAR
TIMING OF ROUGHLY 09Z OR LATER FOR THIS SET OF TAFS FOR THE ONSET
OF THESE CLOUDS. LATER TAF FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO REFINE THE
TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS. WIND WILL REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO KSOA AND KJCT...AND WILL CONTINUE NORTH
INTO KSJT AND KBBD BY 12Z. THE STRATUS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CEILINGS...WITH VFR CEILINGS RETURNING TO ALL TAF SITES AROUND
16Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SHORT TERM (SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT)...

WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE
LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SOMEWHAT...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THESE MAY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND I CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
HEATING MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND TODAY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH
THE MODELS REMAINING FAIRLY CONSISTENT. IN SHORT...THIS MEANS AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.

WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AIDS A COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALLING AND DISSIPATING
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY GIVE IT A LITTLE
BETTER PUSH AND ALLOW THE FRONT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY PR
OGRES...BUT BULK OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS JUST A TAD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER BY MID WEEK...WITH THE
RIDGE WELL ENTRENCHED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOT AN DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  94  74  96  74  90 /  10  10  20  30  30
SAN ANGELO  94  73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  20  20
JUNCTION  92  73  94  71  93 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$