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FXUS64 KSJT 152059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
359 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SETUP THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING
SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS FROM NEW MEXICO ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. ALSO HAVE A DRYLINE MIXING EAST INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS OUR AREA EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH /NUMBER 160/ HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN
HEARTLAND. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND AREAS. STORMS
MAY CONGEAL INTO A MCS BY EARLY TONIGHT.

THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW /WITH DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT/ AND
STRONG EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ON THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 90 IN THE NORTHEASTERN BIG COUNTRY...TO NEAR 100
IN THE CONCHO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN TOPIC IN THE LONG TERM IS THE HEAT WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...
HAVE TWEAKED MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER FOR
FRIDAY...INTO THE 98-103 DEGREE RANGE.
THIS WEEKEND AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
BASIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT...FOR POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO OUR AREA AFTER DEVELOPING ON A DRYLINE TO OUR WEST. WITH
SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE NOT EXTENDED POPS INTO SUNDAY YET.
THIS MAY BE NEEDED IF THE UPPER TROUGH IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE
EAST.

THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING PATTERN IS PROGGED TO CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THUS EXPECT TO
SEE A CONTINUATION OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES /WELL
IN THE 90S TO 100 OR ABOVE/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  68  95  68 101  72 /  30  10   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO  68 100  69 103  71 /  20   5   5   5   5
JUNCTION  68  98  68  99  70 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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