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000
FXUS64 KSJT 151751
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1251 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL BUT THE KSOA
TERMINALS AND WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
AS NEEDED. MVFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER
08Z...SCATTERING OUT AROUND MID MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL VEER WESTERLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THROUGH MID MORNING...EXPECT SCATTERED STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...WITH GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BRADY AND JUNCTION SEEING THE
BEST CHANCES. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED...SO NOT MENTIONING
ANYTHING IN THE TAFS. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN AGAIN OVERNIGHT BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...
.THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE ONGOING LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BEFORE 5 AM. THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE POSSIBLE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIX
EAST TO ABOUT AN ABILENE...TO SAN ANGELO...TO SONORA LINE. THE SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/0 TO 6 KM/ IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. CAPE VALUES WILL WILL ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT...GENERALLY IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE...WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...I STILL QUESTION THE STRENGTH OF
THE CAP DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIN VALUES ARE RATHER LOW...ONLY IN
THE 0 TO 20 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE AREA LESS THAN
10 J/KG. MODEL SOUNDING ALSO SHOW A VERY WEAK TO NONEXISTENT CAP
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING HAIL
AND WINDS. OTHERWISE...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. THE NAM SOLUTION WAS TOO WARM...WHICH IS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE COMPLETE ABSENCE OF THE CURRENT PRECIP.

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST.
850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS OF 28-29C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MID AND UPPER
90S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY AND
WILL PUSH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE A
NICE PREFRONTAL WARM-UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TRIPLE DIGITS
COMMON OVER THE WESTERN CWA. AS THE PACIFIC FRONT INTERACTS WITH A
SHARPLY DEFINED DRYLINE ALONG OUR WESTERN CWA BORDER THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OFF THE DRYLINE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

A SECONDARY UPPER LOW ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND LIFTING TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL FINALLY PUSH
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 WILL COOL
POST-FRONTALLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  88  68  95  68  99 /  20  20  10   5   5
SAN ANGELO  90  68  98  68 100 /  20  20   5   5   5
JUNCTION  86  70  94  68  95 /  20  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24