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000
FXUS64 KSJT 131732
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 18KT THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
STRATUS DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT KJCT AND KSOA BUT CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE CIGS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS MAY STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AT KJCT AND KSOA...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY...TO THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60.

LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG TERM THE MAIN INTEREST IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL
EJECT OUT OF MEXICO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH IT WILL COME A
CHANCE FOR RAIN....MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH A THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME ADDED INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING SOME EARLIER STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. AFTER WEDNESDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO
AS GUIDANCE IS STILL TRENDING WARMER...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT GOING
AS FAR AS 100 DEGREES. THERE MAY BE SOME DRYLINE ACTIVITY LATER IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE FOR THE PASS SEVERAL
RUNS...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT GOING MORE THAN 10 TO 15 PERCENT FOR
POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  86  61  85  66  88 /   0   0  20  30  20
SAN ANGELO  87  59  86  67  90 /   0   5  20  30  10
JUNCTION  86  59  84  66  85 /   0   5  20  40  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24