Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 072155
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013
(Tonight and Sunday)
A few flurries or patchy freezing drizzle possible this evening in
the Big Country, as mid levels moisten with approach of a weak upper
shortwave from the west. Weak up slope NE-E winds in West Central
Texas otherwise will become south by morning.
Subsidence conditions, with decreasing clouds, are expected Sunday
as shortwave passes east. Went below GFS MOS guidance Sunday (about
5 degrees for areas south of I-20), as models probably do not take
into account energy needed to melt sleet and ice on ground.
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Another strong cold front will affect the area on Monday with warmer
temperatures expected towards the end of next week.
A potent upper level trough will move across the Central and
northern Plains Sunday night and Monday, sending another strong
cold front across the area. Latest models are in decent agreement
concerning the timing of the front which will enter the Big Country
late Sunday night and will clear the I-10 corridor by mid morning
on Monday. No precipitation is expected with the front but we
will see temperatures back in the 20s and 30s for daytime highs on
Monday. Monday night will be cold with lows in the upper teens and
low 20s. Surface high pressure settles into the area Tuesday and
Wednesday with moderating temperatures as we see more sunshine and
low level flow becomes easterly by Wednesday.
Models still indicate an upper level trough developing over the
Desert Southwest by midweek, with the trough swing across the area
by Friday. Could see some rain showers with this system primarily
over eastern sections Thursday night and Friday and have kept the
inherited slight pops intact this forecast cycle. Temperatures will
moderate further through the end of the week with highs warming into
the 50s Friday and Saturday, with lows mainly in the 30s.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 19 17 38 19 28 / 10 10 5 5 10
San Angelo 23 18 46 23 35 / 10 10 5 5 10
Junction 30 19 53 25 41 / 10 10 5 5 20