000
FXUS64 KSJT 160851
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
351 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...
...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER...AND HOTTER. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. I HAVE NOT ADJUSTED HIGHS MUCH...MAYBE A DEGREE IN SOME
PLACES. GUIDANCE FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY GIVING
HIGHS IN MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO NEAR
100 DEGREES. SINCE ANY KIND OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL HAVE MOVED
WELL EAST OF THE AREA...NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY DRYLINE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

REIMER

.LONG TERM...
BY FRIDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES. THE 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE 29C DEGREE ISOTHERM WILL BROADEN EASTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE
CWA ON FRIDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS DOMINATING MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD SEE RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY FOR SAN ANGELO...
104 DEGREES VS 100 DEGREES SET IN 2001 AND FOR ABILENE...102
DEGREES VS 101 DEGREES SET IN 1978.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
SHARPENING DRYLINE EXTENDING ALONG OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY AS
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSE THE AREA. HAVE
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER OUR WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES WITH LOWERING POPS EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. AS THE
850MB THERMAL RIDGE RETREATS WESTWARD ON SATURDAY...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH PERHAPS A FEW
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN DRY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  96  69 102  71  97 /   5   5   5   5  10
SAN ANGELO 100  69 104  70 100 /   5   5   5   5  10
JUNCTION  99  69 101  71  98 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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