000
FXUS64 KSJT 162258
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
558 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KJCT THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TAF SITE...I HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS THROUGH 01Z...AFTER WHICH ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT I EXPECT IT TO REMAIN EAST OF OUR TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...
..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AT SAN ANGELO
AND POSSIBLY ABILENE...

A DRYLINE WAS MIXING EAST INTO OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 90S BEHIND
THE DRYLINE. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
COMBINATION IS YIELDING HEAT INDICES OF 97-102 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A PARTIAL RETREAT TONIGHT INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. WITH THE RATHER WARM AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE...GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE /ESPECIALLY THE GFS MOS/ FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING IN THE FAR NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY
AND INTO SAN SABA AND MASON COUNTIES. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AT SAN ANGELO AND POSSIBLY AT
ABILENE. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST ACROSS ALL EXCEPT OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW AND A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT...ALONG WITH EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA...
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SOAR INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY...
ABILENE 101 DEGREES IN 1978
SAN ANGELO 100 DEGREES IN 2001

19

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY...THE
HEADLINE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PLUS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST
TEXAS. I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. HOWEVER...ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT OR DRYLINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE NOT AS
AGRESSIVE WITH QPF AS THE ECMWF. THUS...MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH REGARDING WHERE OR IF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. SO...I DECIDED
TO GO WITH ONLY 20 POPS FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY
ACROSS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES...EXCEPT A SMALL SLICE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WEATHER NIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM.

AS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL IN THE 90S...LOOK LIKELY. AFTER POTENTAIL
RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
DECREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
FLOW AT THAT LEVEL BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS COOLER AIR
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE GULF. ON SUNDAY...THE 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE TRIES TO SURGE BACK FARTHER EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850 MB DOMINATING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THAT LEVEL. HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTAIL FOR RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PLUS ADDED CLOUD COVER...I BELIEVE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY.

HUBER

LONG TERM...

THE LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS
DRY AND HOT. THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH VERY BROAD
AND DOMINATE 500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...BOTH MODELS ALSO START THE LONG TERM WITH A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS
LOW SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS. NEITHER MODEL BRINGS THIS FRONT ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BOTH STALL THE FRONT NEAR AN OZONA TO
THROCKMORTON LINE AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF DOES GENERATE
SOME QPF SOTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR HEARTLAND AND
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS-BASED MEX
PRESENTED ONLY 10 POPS ACROSS THAT AREA FOR TUESDAY. THUS...I DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE ANY WEATHER
FOR THAT PERIOD.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB DO NOT VARY
MUCH...FROM DAY TO DAY AT 00Z...FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...FOR THURSDAY FLOW AT 850 MB DOES BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST.
SO...WE AT LEAST HAVE THE POTENTAIL FOR COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SO...I DECIDED TO GO WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
FOR THAT PERIOD CLOSE TO THE MEX MOS NUMBERS...MAINLY AROUND 90.

HUBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70 102  71  97  71 /   5   5  10  20  20
SAN ANGELO  70 106  70 100  72 /   5   5  10  20  20
JUNCTION  70 102  71  98  71 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DANIELS