000
FXUS64 KSJT 132051
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
351 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TONIGHT WILL BE PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

A WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW BUT
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY RESULT
IN SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO THE UPPER 80S
OVER THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY.

24

.LONG TERM...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING IN COOLER
AIR ALOFT. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL ALSO BE TO 35 TO 40
KTS...WITH GFS SB CAPES INCREASING TO 2000-2500 J/KG BY 7 PM. WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS IS MENTIONED IN THE DAY 3 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
FROM SPC. MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL.

BECOMING HOT BY MIDWEEK...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING
INTO TO NEARLY 30 C THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND CROCKETT COUNTY. THIS IS GOOD FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY 100. CAP WILL PROBABLY HOLD ON DRYLINE
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT BRINGING IN A MENTION OF
ISOLATED STORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOT AND DRY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH
SUNDAY. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STORM NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
ZONES AT THIS TIME.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  60  85  67  89  68 /   0  20  30  20  20
SAN ANGELO  59  85  66  90  69 /   0  20  30  10  10
JUNCTION  58  84  68  85  71 /   5  30  40  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04