000
FXUS64 KSJT 190442
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATE NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM THE
PREVIOUS TERMINALS. STRATUS RETURN TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LOOKS
UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A STALLED FRONT REMAINS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WE DID HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA EARLIER. HOWEVER...THAT ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED. SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. FOR TOMORROW...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS. THE NAM STILL BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO THE BIG COUNTRY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS...I WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH A PROB30
GROUP FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE ABILENE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...PLAN
FOR NIL WEATHER.

HUBER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

UPDATE...
TO REMOVE POPS...

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...SO I WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS. ALSO...CONVECTION
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT BELIEVE
THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z...SO I
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

AVIATION...

MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST...THEY COULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP
IN PLACE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LOW. THUS...I DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE
ABILENE TERMINAL FOR TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...THE NAM DEVELOPS A
MINOR SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THEN...THE NAM DEVELOPS CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
MOVES IT SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THUS...I DECIDED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDER IN THE
ABILENE TERMINAL BEGINNING AT 18Z TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT OR
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW.

HUBER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FORECAST THIS
EVENING...AND IN BIG COUNTRY MAINLY LATE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DRY OTHERWISE WITH WARMING CONDITIONS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...AS A CAP HAS DEVELOPED OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WHERE A DISSIPATING FRONT MAY ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. A CUMULUS FIELD WAS DEVELOPING IN THE
BIG COUNTRY...BUT WITH PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO BREAK THE CAP. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LATE
TONIGHT IN THE BIG COUNTRY...IF STORMS INITIATING IN THE PANHANDLE
MOVE SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS WEDNESDAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

SB CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SO COULD SEE A STRONG OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM...IF
THEY DEVELOP. CAPES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BIG COUNTRY
INCREASE TO NEARLY 3000 J/KG. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT THEY
WOULD BE CONDITIONAL ON BREAKING AN INCREASING CAP.

04

LONG TERM...
HOT AND DRY...DRY AND HOT. THE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE
FINALLY CAUGHT UP WITH THE CALENDAR AS A TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER
SETUP IS IN ORDER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF JUNE. THIS MEANS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST
DURING THIS TIME. THE SUBSIDENT REGIME IS READILY APPARENT ON
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THIS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS WEST CENTRAL TX OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WE WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS ACTING AS A
STRONG CAP WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE LOOKS
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...REMAINING
ANCHORED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE
PRESENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK...
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE NUDGES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH AND THROUGHOUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE STEERING FLOW LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL...INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND VEGETATION
GREENUP...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDINGLY HOT THIS
WEEK. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S BUT TRIPLE
DIGITS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 70S. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES OF 5 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  95  72  94  74 /  10  20   5   0   0
SAN ANGELO  71  97  72  96  73 /  10   5   0   0   0
JUNCTION  70  94  71  93  72 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HUBER/04/JOHNSON