National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSJT 171719
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1219 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013


.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/

&&

.AVIATION...
TIMING OF STORM COMPLEXES IS THE MAJOR AVIATION PROBLEM THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE VICINITY THUNDER AT KABI BEGINNING AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...FROM SWEETWATER TO BROWNWOOD. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK EARLY THIS
EVENING IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG A COLD FRONT... THEN MOVE SE INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY/CONCHO VALLEY LATE EVENING. KEEPING MENTION OF
STORMS LIMITED TO VCTS AT ABILENE...AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY
THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. PATCHY
STRATUS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. I
ADDED IN A VCTS GROUP AT KABI AFTER 00Z...WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM (MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT)...

A COMPLEX FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
FIRST CONCERN IS WHETHER CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MAKE IT INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY. IN ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL
JET OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...I BELIEVE SOME OF
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING FARTHER SOUTH. AS THIS
CONVECTION DISSIPATES...I BELIEVE AN OUTFLOW...OR MORE THAN ONE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
THESE SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXACTLY WHERE THESE STORMS
DEVELOP IS HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...BUT I BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST...AND POSSIBLY
AFFECT PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND...MAINLY AFTER 7
PM. A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADDITION TO 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE
BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 90S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ANY REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS
THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

MAY STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WHATS LEFT OF
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP WILL BE DRIVEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY
EXACTLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THUS
QUESTIONS ABOUT BEST POP CHANCES REMAIN. HOWEVER...MOST LIKELY
AREA IS PROBABLY STILL THE BIG COUNTRY...ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA...BUT
WILL BRING SOME CHANCE OF STORMS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND HEARTLAND AS WELL...JUST BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...CENTERED
VERY CLOSE TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. IN PAST YEARS...THIS WOULD BE A
FOR SURE STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREE DAYS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE HIGH...BUT THIS YEAR...SOME RECENT RAINFALL MAY BE ABLE TO
MITIGATE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. WILL FORECAST HIGHS AT OR JUST
BELOW THE CENTURY MARK FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  95  73  92  72  96 /  30  40  30  30   5
SAN ANGELO  94  72  96  72  96 /  10  30  20  20   0
JUNCTION  94  73  94  71  94 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04