000
FXUS64 KSJT 152322
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
622 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013


.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE AND PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES... EXPECT MVFR STRATUS TO RETURN AFTER 7Z TONIGHT...OVER
ALL BUT KABI. LIGHT MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING WITH WET
VEGETATION. COULD SEE VISIBILITY DIPS INTO IFR...BUT SHOULD BRIEF
IF THEY OCCUR. CIGS RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...
CURRENTLY...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AT LEAST TWO MCV/S IN OR
NEAR OUR CWA. ONE CAN BE SEEN TURNING OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE CWA...AND ANOTHER ONE IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO CROCKETT AND
SONORA COUNTIES. THE SOUTHERN MCV APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN SCATTERED
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME...A CU FIELD TO THE WEST OF THE CWA CAN BE SEEN
EVAPORATING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE MAIN TROUGH CAN EXIT THE AREA...WE MAY
STILL SEE A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE GFS SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS SHOWING
ADDITIONAL QPF ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT
CHANCES TO FINALLY START TO DIMINISH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AND IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST...WE MIGHT EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN WESTERN AREAS
WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TONIGHT TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW AS WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE...AND NO RAINFALL. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BACK IN THE NORTHWEST AS MOST OF THE POSSIBLE
CONVECTION TOMORROW AIS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR FARTHER WEST NEAR THE
TX/NM BORDER.

LONG TERM...
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY TO THE BIG COUNTRY...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH THIS WEEK.
RIDGE WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE THE RED RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE BIG
COUNTRY... CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR STORM OUTFLOW TO PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND...LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

GFS SURFACE BASED CAPES INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SO A STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. HOWEVER UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF
THE REGION...SO DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...ENDING RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  70  94  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  20  30
SAN ANGELO  69  95  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10  20
JUNCTION  71  93  71  93  71 /  50   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04