National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 161850
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS IT WEAKENS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO HELP WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
THE EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS MOISTURE DECREASES SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING WITH THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
DUE TO LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
SAME COULD BE SAID FOR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY ONTO NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AND
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAYING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR
A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS MODEL ALSO HAS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
UNDER SOME FAIRLY CONSISTENT RAIN WITH THIS MOISTURE UNDER A
SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHRA/TSRA AT TJMZ/TJPS AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 16/22Z. SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 FEET. SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 5 FEET
ON SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASE UP TO 6 FEET ON SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  77  86 /  20  20   0  20
STT  78  88  78  88 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25

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