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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161514
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1114 AM AST THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
AN IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU
SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND
WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED A BIT
LATER MAINLY DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJPS AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT
16/22Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY E 10 TO 15 KTS FROM SFC UP TO
2 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM AST THU MAY 16 2013/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA TONIGHT
AND FRI. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE CARIB NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...STILL SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TODAY AS UPPER
LEVE TROF AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT ACTIVITY
ISN`T LIKELY TO BE AS INTENSE AS IT WAS YDAY. SHARPER DRYING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU SAT UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING TROF AND WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRES.

MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER TROF MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS AND PROMOTES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ENHANCES MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRES ACROSS THE ATLC MID NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT
WITH STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO
CONVERGE OVR THE AREA SETTING UP A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGH AT H5
FCST TO EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WRN CARIB WILL HELP
INDUCE A SWRLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH AN EPAC MOISTURE CONNECTION
FCST TO CONVERGE OVR HISPANIOLA...CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND
POSSIBLY PR. OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASINGLY CLOUDY AND WET
CONDITIONS MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL ARND
16/16Z. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AFT 16/16Z ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ARND TJMZ IN AREAS OF +SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 16/21Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL AFTER 16/21Z AT
TKPK OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY ESE 10 TO 15 KTS
FROM SFC UP TO 2 KFT.

MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT INCREASING TO 5 FT OVR THE WEEKEND IN MIXED
NORTHEAST SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES. TSTMS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD MAINLY OVER CARIB WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  77  87  77 /  20  20  20   0
STT  87  79  87  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25