National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 241513 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 AM AST FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
OFF THE U.S EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT. TROUGH PATTERN WILL THEN
PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE IS
SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE IT SEEMS
LIKE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BUILD LATE TODAY INTO ERN PR AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY FROM
GETTING OUT OF HAND. HOWEVER...THINGS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW
AS A AREA BECOMES UNDER LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAK. OP AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PRETTY AGRESSIVE ON TOMORROW
BEING PRETTY ACTIVE AND MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS
SINCE AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SO I GOT PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
TOMORROW WE`LL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING.
THINGS APPEAR TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY ON SUN BUT MANY STREAMS AND
RIVERS ARE LIKELY TO BE SWOLLEN OR OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

&&

.AVIATION...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EARLY SAT WITH FREQ SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ESPECIALLY NORTH
COAST PR AND USVI TERMINALS. THE LEEWARD TERMINALS ESPECIALLY
SAINT MAARTEN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6 FEET SOON AND SCA WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  76  86  76 /  70  70  70  70
STT  85  76  86  77 /  70  70  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     INTERIOR-CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
     NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN
     JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

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