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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 131550
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1150 AM AST THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS CARIBBEAN
WATERS THIS MORNING. MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WERE OBSERVED
WITH THIS MORNING ACTIVITY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. INHERITED
SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALMOST ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ WHERE
MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL BTWN 18-21Z NEAR SHRA/TSRA. LLVL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FM THE E TO ESE AT 15-25 BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM AST THU JUN 13 2013/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS TUTT TO THE NORTHWEST OF LOCAL
ISLANDS WEAKENS. A SECOND TUTT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON FRIDAY.

DISCUSSION...A MUCH DRIER WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IF WE COMPARE THEM TO THE LAST TWO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE
DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY SHOWING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATIONS WITH LOCAL EFFECT WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
PREVAILING WIND FROM EAST SOUTHEAST COULD ALSO HELP FOR A CU LINE
TO DEVELOP FROM EL YUNQUE TOWARD THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 55W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY AS SOON AS FRIDAY MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALMOST ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFT 18Z...VCSH ARE POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ
AND TJBQ CAUSING TEMPORARY REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FM THE E TO ESE FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2 KFT.

MARINE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON WIND SPEED WILL
OCCURRED...MODERATE TOTO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS OUR
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  77  89  79 /  30  40  40  20
STT  89  79  90  80 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/23