000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230302 RRA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1102 PM AST WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY. MOST OF THE
ISLAND RECEIVED SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC SKIES WITH A LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS AT FL050
DOMINATE THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. HOWEVER...VFR WITH A FEW -RA
ARE  EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAFS SITES OVERNIGHT.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PR.
23/00Z TJSJ RAOB SHOWED LLVL WIND FM E AT 10-25 KT BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS
AMZ710..AMZ 722 AND AMZ 732.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM AST WED MAY 22 2013/

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...CAUSING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AS WELL.  GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES IN AND IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TERMINALS IN PUERTO
RICO UNTIL AT LEAST 22/20Z. SHRA AND TSRA ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALSO...SOME OBSC MTNS
ACROSS INTERIOR OF PR. VFR EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AFT 22/20Z.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS...SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  77  85 /  30  40  30  50
STT  77  87  77  88 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N.

&&

$$

11/71