000
FXCA62 TJSJ 140150 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
949 PM AST MON MAY 13 2013

.UPDATE...SATELITE IMAGES AND TERMINAL DOPPLER DATA STILL INDICATE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL 10 PM AST ACROSS THE WEST
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...ALMOST
THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY INTENSE AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO IN
THE AFTERNOON. MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND
NORTH SECTIONS OF PR. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL BTWN 14/17-22Z. EVENING TJSJ RAOB INDICATED
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 KT BLO FL050.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM AST MON MAY 13 2013/

SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE DISSIPATES TONIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY...MOVING CLOSE TO REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY
NORTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST...WHILE PREVAIL UNTIL THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER TROUGH JUST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING...SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY AND APPROACHING TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE STEADILY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...FROM AROUND 1.50 INCHES TODAY TO NEAR 1.90 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR...NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ UNTIL AT
LEAST 13/23Z. THEREFORE...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER 13/23Z AND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  77  87 /  20  40   0  20
STT  77  87  77  85 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/11