000
FXUS65 KSLC 201613
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1013 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TOMORROW ALLOWING DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS TO TAKE
FORM. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD WEDNESDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE AREA FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. ONE LAST
SPOKE OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT AREAS THIS
MORNING BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN BUT IS WEAKENING AS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED. UPDATED TO THIN POPS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CREST
THOUGH LEFT HEAVIER WORDING AREAS EAST AS CAMERA IMAGERY INDICATE
WIDESPREAD SHALLOW SHOWERS REMAINING ATTM.

TRENDS TODAY WILL BE TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST BUT LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN SPARK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INCREASED POPS FROM CHANCE
TO LIKELY ACROSS THE UINTAS AND BOOK CLIFFS AS SUCH...AND ADDED
MENTION TO HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN LATEST UPDATE.

BIG PICTURE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE AMPLIFICATION LOCALLY TUESDAY
SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER
THE PACNW FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL SHIFT TO THAT MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD
FOCUSING ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH. BETWEEN NOW AND THEN
WILL SEE A RAPID WARMING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MOST
AREAS CLIMBING 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO ONCE AGAIN AS RIDGE CENTERS
AND SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THIS SAID...A STRONG AND DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED PACNW TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING FAR
NORTHWESTERN UTAH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A COOL DOWN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH. AWAITING FULL SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE AS BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS HAVE RETAINED GOOD CONTINUITY RUN TO RUN...BUT DETAILS
REGARDING TIMING AND DEPTH OF FRONT REMAIN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE FORECAST REMAINS MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD AS WARM DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE
NORM.

NO OTHER UPDATES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST
UTAH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE SLC TERMINAL. CEILINGS IN THE 4-6 KFT
RANGE WILL EXIST THROUGH 18-19Z...THEN CLIMB INTO THE 8-10 KFT RANGE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 01-02Z...THEN BECOMING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND BETWEEN 03-04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LAST PIECE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT
COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP TO THE FIRE DISTRICTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TODAY. MINIMAL ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF COOL TEMPS AND FAIRLY HIGH
RH VALUES.

A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL REACH EASTERN NEVADA BY
LATE TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER/DRIER AIR WILL
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS ALL OF UTAH...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED
FOR THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THE FRONT WILL PRESS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MODESTLY
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A SECOND SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS SECOND FRONT...MUCH LIKE THE FIRST...WILL GENERATE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
LATE THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL COOL FURTHER BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH THE
MAIN IMPACT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN FIRE ZONES. BREEZY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/CONGER


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VISIT...
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