000
FXUS65 KSLC 141021
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
420 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER BUT DRY AIRMASS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
TODAY. A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER IDAHO/MONTANA
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST UTAH YESTERDAY
AND OVERNIGHT HAS USHERED IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL UTAH
TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS THE COLD PUSH MADE
LITTLE HEADWAY INTO THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN UTAH AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE GRADIENT
RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BUMP BACK UP TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA...AND MODELS HINT
THAT SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN
UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE NAM
ESPECIALLY AGGRESSIVE IN THAT REGARD. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OFF THE TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL REACH THE GROUND.

THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME DRIER ONCE AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD PICK UP ON TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A VERY GRADUAL CLIMB
DURING THIS TIME. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT THE EC WITH ITS SHARPER TROUGH DOES BRING A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH TODAY AND UP UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE RECOVERED NICELY OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UTAH TODAY BUT WILL REBOUND SATURDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BUT IT WILL ALSO TAP A LITTLE MOISTURE AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST UTAH WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICALLY DRY. WARM DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS RAMPING UP TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...A
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SATURDAY EVENING FOR UTZ497-498.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING BELOW 9000 FEET FOR UTZ496.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ495.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)