Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 212000
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2017

VALID 00Z WED FEB 22 2017 - 00Z FRI FEB 24 2017

...MANY DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION DUE TO
ANOMALOUS WARMTH...

...HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WASATCH AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...

...INCREASINGLY WET CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE STATE OF FLORIDA...


WHAT HAS BEEN A MILD FEBRUARY FOR MANY WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. AN ABSENCE OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES COUPLED WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD FAVOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE APPROXIMATELY 20
TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. CONSEQUENTLY, MANY DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS MAY FALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
CHICAGO O`HARE AIRPORT ON WEDNESDAY IS 73 DEGREES WHICH IS 5
DEGREES ABOVE THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH SET BACK IN 1922. SIMILAR
FORECASTS STRETCH FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH SUGGESTS MANY RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. IN
PARTICULAR, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
FROM THE WASATCH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHERE AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 12 TO 18 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
EVENTUALLY ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MOVES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS
BEING FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA/EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.,
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING IS EXPECTED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH
IS SPREADING DRY, GUSTY WINDS TO THE GREAT PLAINS. RED FLAG
WARNINGS CURRENTLY BLANKET SECTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO/COLORADO
AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH SUGGESTS AN ENVIRONMENT MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRE PRODUCTION. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE AT A CRITICAL RISK FOR SUCH ACTIVITY BASED ON THE
LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ELSEWHERE, A ROBUST UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM, A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE
AUGMENTED BY AMPLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
SUNSHINE STATE. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE EAST, UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
$$





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