Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 131949
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

VALID 00Z SUN FEB 14 2016 - 00Z TUE FEB 16 2016

...THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN
U.S. THIS WEEKEND...

...MILD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN STATES...

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. ICE STORM
WARNINGS AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH DAKOTA. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE DAKOTAS, SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA, IOWA AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 6
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, BUT WILL WEAKEN AS THEY REACH THE LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE CASCADES WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
1.5 FEET, THE SAWTOOTHS WITH TOTALS UP TO 1 FOOT, AND THE
BITTEROOTS, BEARTOOTHS AND TETONS WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 FEET.
OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL GENERALLY IN MILD AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE AMPLIFIED FLOW. WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL SPAN FROM TEXAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.  LOCATIONS
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM (I.E. SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC) WILL HAVE
RAIN. LOCATIONS JUST TO THE NORTH (CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY) LIKELY SEE A COMBINATION
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES THROUGH SUNDAY. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE DEL-MA-VA
AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO NEW JERSEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A VAST
AREA COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR. LOCATIONS ON THE APPALACHIANS COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES.
THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. 3-DAY ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE COMMON FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TO
NORTHERN MAINE. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS  ARE EXPECTED FOR UPSTATE
NEW YORK, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE AND WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 1 FOOT.

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS WINTER SEASON WILL PERSIST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.  WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS, WITH WIND
CHILL READINGS DROPPING BELOW -30 DEGREES TONIGHT.  ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FRIGID WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS, AND SUBZERO LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

CAMPBELL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$




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