336
FXUS01 KWBC 031956
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Fri May 03 2024

Valid 00Z Sat May 04 2024 - 00Z Mon May 06 2024

...Heavy rain, significant flooding, and severe weather concerns
remain across parts of eastern Texas and the southern Plains
through the weekend...

...Heavy mountain snow and gusty winds to enter much of the West,
Great Basin, and Rockies over the next few days...

...Below average temperatures and showers impact the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast into the end of the weekend...

Slow-moving thunderstorms containing intense rainfall rates are
ongoing this afternoon throughout parts of southeastern Texas just
north of the Houston metro area, which are leading to a continuing
threat of flash flooding. Ongoing significant to catastrophic
flooding throughout parts of eastern Texas from prior heavy rain
will only exacerbate the flash, urban, and river flooding threat
from additional rainfall into this evening. Newly formed
thunderstorms developing off a southern High Plains dryline could
lead to isolated to scattered flash flooding across central Texas
as well tonight, but the main hazard associated with these storms
are forecast to be associated with giant hail, damaging wind
gusts, and a few tornadoes. Farther north, a potent cold front
exiting the central High Plains and progressing into the
mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday is also expected to spark a
line of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain
and severe thunderstorms, mainly throughout parts of Kansas and
Nebraska.

By this weekend, the aforementioned cold front is expected to
continue progressing eastward through the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
The tail end of of this frontal boundary reaching westward to the
southern Plains will be the focus for additional thunderstorm
activity and the potential for flash flooding. A Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for central and
north-central Texas on Saturday, with the threat area shifting
east on Sunday, extending from eastern Texas to southwest Missouri
and far southeast Kansas. Additionally, severe thunderstorms are
possible, with the greatest risk anticipated on Saturday in the
Permian Basin of West Texas. Several storms may produce large to
giant hail and a couple strong tornadoes.

An anomalously strong upper-level low entering northern California
on Saturday night is forecast to spread moderate to heavy
precipitation and gusty winds into the western U.S. and Great
Basin this weekend. Heavy mountain snow in the Sierra Nevada and
Oregon Cascades is likely to add up to over a foot (mainly above
6000 feet) on Saturday. As the system continues to swing eastward,
gusty southerly winds up to 60 to 80s mph are possible in the
central Great Basin and the Sierra Nevada, where High Wind
Warnings have been issued. The associated precipiation and gusty
winds will shift eastward as the upper-level low crosses the
Intermountain West on Sunday. Residents and visitors through are
advised to check local conditions before traveling, especially
throughout exposed elevated roadways.

Showers are also expected to dampen the first weekend in May
throughout much of the Great Lakes and eastern United States. Most
precipitation should remain scattered, with thunderstorm chances
in the Southeast, Ohio and Tennessee valleys. A backdoor cold
front sinking through the Mid-Atlantic today will allow for
additional shower activity and below average temperatures this
weekend. Highs are only expected to reach the 50s and 60s as cloud
cover and cool air streaming off the Atlantic keep temperatures 10
to 20 degrees below average between the Mid-Atlantic and New
England when compared to climatology for the dates.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$