Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 121957
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 00Z SAT FEB 13 2016 - 00Z MON FEB 15 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

...THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN
U.S. THIS WEEKEND...

...RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST
WILL PERSIST IN PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ELSEWHERE. AS WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CROSSES THE LAKES
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 FOOT MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS. WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND WESTERN NEW YORK. THE HEAVIEST
BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NEAR
THE LAKES, HOWEVER SNOW WILL SPREAD TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND A HANDFUL OF WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND APPALACHIANS.

PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY BE A MIX
OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW BY MONDAY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.10 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, ARCTIC AIR WILL BLAST A VAST PORTION OF
THE EASTERN STATES, BRINGING SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON SO FAR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS SPAN FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO MAINE AND SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
APPALACHIANS.

SIMULTANEOUSLY, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS IS CAUSING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK WAY
OFFSHORE, BUT PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE AND MAY CLIP
COASTAL MAINE WITH UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR
COASTAL WASHINGTON AND OREGON COULD BE 5+ INCHES BY MONDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADES,
SAWTOOTHS, BITTERROOTS, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BIG HORNS. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SNOW, AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN OR ICE, WILL SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.
RELATIVELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO HALF A FOOT COULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA.


CAMPBELL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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