Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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096
FXUS01 KWBC 192053
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2017

VALID 00Z MON FEB 20 2017 - 00Z WED FEB 22 2017

...THERE IS  A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRAS, SAWTOOTH, AND WIND RIVER
MTNS/ABSAROKA RANGE...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
FORM A NEW CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY.  THE STORM WILL PRODUCE SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHWEST WILL
COME TO AN END BY MONDAY MORNING.  IN ADDITION, MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING THAT WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING.  BY
MONDAY EVENING, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WITHDRAW TO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY.  OVERNIGHT MONDAY, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.


THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY
AND INTO MONDAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST ENDING OVER
MOST OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND WILL EXPAND INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, WANING BY MONDAY.  FARTHER NORTH,
MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY AND
WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW FROM THE
COAST INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES,
SIERRAS, SAWTOOTH, THE MOGOLLON RIM AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO CALIFORNIA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD, CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW
WILL AID IN STREAMING MOISTURE INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF
COAST AND WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS OVER EASTERN TEXAS MAY BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON. REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WEBPAGE FOR
ADDITION INFORMATION ON THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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