Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 192023
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VALID 00Z WED AUG 20 2014 - 00Z FRI AUG 22 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...

AN UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW, WITH PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA. A
WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO
BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING OVERHEAD AND MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW EVENING. BY
THURSDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN MONTANA AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENHANCED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE REGION.

KREKELER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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