Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 152000
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2017

VALID 00Z WED AUG 16 2017 - 00Z FRI AUG 18 2017

...BEST CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM
NEBRASKA EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AS ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER MERGES AND THEN
INTERACTS WITH A FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
REACHING THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.  SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

OVER THE EASTERN U.S., A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE BASE
OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.

MEANWHILE, TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.

OUT WEST, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WESTERN U.S.
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY.

KONG


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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