Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 311957
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VALID 00Z WED JUN 01 2016 - 00Z FRI JUN 03 2016

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE TO LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
SLOWLY TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  LIKEWISE, THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY.  RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THURSDAY.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL AID IN STREAMING
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THE MOISTURE AND THE ENERGY WILL
AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

IN ADDITION, DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RICH AIR OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MAXIMUM AREAL COVERAGE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  FURTHERMORE, POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE WILL SPIN
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.  ADDITIONALLY, TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BONNIE
WILL EXTEND WELL INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.  THE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID IN PRODUCING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE, A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO
STREAM INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PRODUCING RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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