Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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608
FXUS01 KWBC 252014
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

VALID 00Z SUN MAR 26 2017 - 00Z TUE MAR 28 2017

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...

...MORE RAIN AND SNOW TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST U.S. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...

AN STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WEAKENING SOMEWHAT
AS IT REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND POOL ALONG THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SPANNING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT, DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE POTENT COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY/EASTERN GULF
COAST BY SUNDAY.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A
PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG THE GULF COAST AS
BEING IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THEIR WEBSITE FOR MORE
INFORMATION: WWW.SPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. MEANWHILE ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED
NORTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE COLD SECTOR, AND MAY
RESULT IN SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD, A SECONDARY
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN, BRINGING
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
BY SUNDAY, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS. FRONTAL
FEATURES WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE WEAKENING EASTWARD SYSTEM,
WITH THE STRONG SURGE OF WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIR BEING
REDIRECTED BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY,
SPREADING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEMS SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, AND ONWARDS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS OUTLINED CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AS BEING
IN A SLIGHT AND ENHANCED REGION FOR SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY RELATED TO
THIS SYSTEM.

FINALLY, ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FLOOD WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEVADA AND MUCH OF
IDAHO.

WIX


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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