Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 280813
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VALID 12Z THU AUG 28 2014 - 12Z SAT AUG 30 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...


THE MAIN EVENT TO SPEAK OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST ORGANIZED OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONGREGATE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND AROUND A SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAINS, ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING, ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT, WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING SPANNING THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MEANWHILE, WEAK TROPICAL ENERGY MOVING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS MAY BRING SOME MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES, BUT THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, A PATCH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH TO
THE WEST COULD EXPAND SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AS WELL. ELSEWHERE, A
COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SINCE THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS RATHER WEAK.


MONARSKI


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$




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