Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 200642
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2017

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 20 2017 - 12Z TUE AUG 22 2017

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...

...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST STATES...


THE MONSOON WILL PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WILL SPARK AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FOCUS ON
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY,
BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXPAND ON MONDAY WITH A ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BECOME STALLED WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION STRETCHES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLING BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG THE FRONT BY
MONDAY, INCREASING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL BOTH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO CARRYING RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPARK AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL BUT SHOULD REMAIN MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.


KREKELER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$





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