Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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659
FXUS01 KWBC 112003
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 00Z FRI FEB 12 2016 - 00Z SUN FEB 14 2016

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...

...ARCTIC AIR MASS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. BY SATURDAY...

...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A VAST PORTION OF THE EASTERN STATES WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF ARCTIC AIR SURGES
THROUGH. COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS, PRIMARILY IN THE FAVORED AREAS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SOME AREAS DOWNWIND
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO MAY RECEIVE UP TO A FOOT OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW YORK
HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND
MICHIGAN.

PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WELL-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MID-FEBRUARY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/WEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ALONG THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
RANGE, AS WELL AS, COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
BRINGING SNOW PRIMARILY TO MAINE BY SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST MAINE IS
FORECAST TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL, WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR A FOOT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN FOR MIXED IN FOR SOME AREAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH SNOW FALLING AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS,
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OLYMPICS AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CASCADES AND THE OLYMPICS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST INTO SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INLAND.


CAMPBELL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$





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